Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
989 ACUS11 KWNS 201831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201830 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-202000- Mesoscale Discussion 1343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Areas affected...northeast NY to parts of New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438... Valid 201830Z - 202000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated mixed wind/hail risk should transition to a scattered damaging wind threat as individual cells loosely congeal into an east-southeast moving cluster through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Numerous single cell thunderstorms are ongoing from parts of central NY to western ME and northward into southeast ON and south QC. The more prominent activity will likely persist in association with a well-defined MCV over northeast NY. With this corridor just north of the peak buoyancy plume over the Hudson Valley, characterized by MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, further intensification is expected over the next 2-3 hours. Recent VWP data from CXX and TYX confirm a belt of modestly enhanced 3-6 km AGL westerlies around 25-30 kts. This should serve to loosely organize a multicell cluster across VT/NH/southwest ME and perhaps part of MA later this afternoon. Recent HRRR runs have been consistent on this scenario with 12Z NSSL-MPAS guidance. With surface temperatures having already warmed through the mid 90s from eastern MA into southwest ME, these hot temperatures should boost severe wind gust potential, and may yield peak gusts into the 55-70 mph range. ..Grams.. 06/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44717359 44627019 44076946 42887057 42477113 42407146 42487221 43037399 43467477 44717359