Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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474 ACUS11 KWNS 040600 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040600 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040800- Mesoscale Discussion 1159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Central OK to the Red River Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388... Valid 040600Z - 040800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388 continues. SUMMARY...Initial severe hail threat will probably transition to mainly a severe wind threat in the pre-dawn hours. An additional severe thunderstorm watch and/or expansion of WW 388 to the Red River may be needed in the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have blossomed over the past hour with parcels rooted from 900-800 mb within the exit region of a mid 40s southerly low-level jet as sampled by the FWS VWP. Despite ample ML/MUCAPE emanating north from central TX to southwest OK, the increasingly predominant cluster mode coupled with weak shear above 500 mb per the TLX VWP and forecast soundings suggest that the hail threat will probably remain tempered in the 1-1.75 inch diameter range. Available 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs are consistent with a few of the 00Z HREF members in indicating upscale growth with convection accelerating southward to the Red River along and east of the I-35 corridor. As this process occurs, potential for wind gusts from 55-70 mph will increase. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35169834 35259707 34959562 34639518 33859422 33519389 33279393 33169407 33219452 33169514 33369670 33589747 34469838 34939862 35169834