Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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258 ACUS11 KWNS 250937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250937 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-251130- Mesoscale Discussion 1405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...Far Southern Lower MI...Far Northern IN...Far Northwest OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 250937Z - 251130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential from the ongoing MCS may extend into far southern lower MI, far northern IN, and potentially even far northwest OH. A downstream watch will likely be needed for portions of the area. DISCUSSION...Convective line ongoing from east-central WI across central Lake Michigan and into far western Lower MI continues to push southeastward at 50 to 55 kt. Despite an earlier trend towards potentially more southerly motion the MCS appears to be maintaining its more southeasterly trajectory, which would bring the MCS to the southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 at around 11Z. The expectation is for some severe potential to likely continue south of the watch. One limiting factor is that the current southeasterly motion takes displaces the line further from the better low-level moisture and buoyancy. However, given the organization and strength of the MCS, some severe threat will likely extend into far southern lower MI, far northern IN, and potentially even far northwest OH. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 42288672 42418492 42288338 41508340 41028424 41278727 42288672