Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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379 FXUS64 KMEG 202011 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Hot and dry conditions will affect the region over the next couple of days as high pressure prevails across the Mid-South. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s over the weekend and heat advisory headlines may be required as early as Sunday likely lasting through mid next week. Rain chances also look to return to the Mid-South early next week with even higher precipitation chances by midweek as several cold fronts approach the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Latest water vapor analysis places a 597 dam ridge over portions of the Mid-Atlantic with a broad area of longwave troughing over the western United States. The forecast expectations remain fairly consistent with the previous forecast as the mid-level ridge is expected to build back to the west, resulting in hot and dry conditions across the Mid-South over the weekend with temperatures rising in the mid to upper 90s. Northwest flow looks to begin across the region on Monday and Tuesday as the mid-level ridge becomes centered over the southwestern United States. A backdoor cold front will move toward the Mid-South around Sunday and Monday, which looks to bring rain chances to the region as dewpoints increase into the low to mid 70s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will likely yield heat index values exceeding 105 degrees across the Mid-South starting on Monday, possibly as early as Sunday if the moisture moves faster than anticipated. These heat index values look to stick around through at least Wednesday when another cold front moves toward the Mid-South, bringing not only somewhat cooler temperatures but a better chance of rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period. Some variabilities in wind direction, generally between E/SE around or below 7 kts. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...CMA