Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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001 FXUS64 KMEG 240810 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front slowly moves across the region. A few thunderstorms may be strong to severe, along the Tennessee River Valley with gusty winds being the primary threat. An upper level disturbance will reside over the region for the next several days resulting in below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Latest surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary just to the northwest of the Missouri Bootheel. This boundary combined with around 40kts of effective shear, has been able to fire up some convection depicted on KNQA at this hour. A weak bit of CIN has been able to allow these storms to quickly collapse on themselves in early stages. Prior to collapse of these storms, gusty winds (50 mph or less) remain the primary threat. As daytime heating commences, surface based instability will rise, lift provided from the aforementioned front slowly pushing southeast; a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. Mid-level lapse rates will be the limiting factor in any deep convection development today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out today with primary threats being damaging winds and hail. Areas along the Tennessee River Valley have the highest chance of seeing a strong to severe storm this afternoon into evening hours. A deep trough from the Northern Plains will phase with the slow moving front expected to cross the region today. The result of this phase, will leave a cutoff low over the Middle Mississippi Valley for a large portion of the forecast period. This will result in below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances. Awaiting a pattern change will come from the development and track of Tropical Cyclone 9 anticipated to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle later this week. The current precipitation forecast from WPC for the next 7 days is 2-3" along the Tennessee River Valley and less further west. This forecast will likely change depending on the track of the tropical system and the potential interaction with the presence of the cut off low. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Cold front will push through the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight into Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers possible with the potential for elevated TS remaining low overnight. HREF guidance continues to indicate the potential for MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning then improving to VFR conditions for Tuesday afternoon. Best potential for TS will be at TUP Tuesday afternoon. Light winds will increase to W winds between 7-10 kts on Wednesday, then becoming light NNW winds Tuesday evening. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC