977
FXUS64 KMEG 231122
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves
into the region. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this
evening with gusty winds and hail. An upper level low pressure
system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and
result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Each day
will feature below normal temperatures with medium to high chances
for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The latest surface analysis places a 1012mb low over western
Arkansas with a cold front extending southwest through central
Texas. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is churning over
Nebraska. A leading weak perturbation, embedded in southwest flow,
is translating through central Arkansas at this hour. A few light
showers are noted on radar, mainly along the Tennessee and
Kentucky border.

The aforementioned trough will slowly deepen and phase with a
northern stream shortwave through Tuesday. Appreciable height
falls will occur late this afternoon and into the evening and
spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north
of I-40. A few of the storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. The threat
window will remain limited to late afternoon through early
evening, as instability will wane quickly.

The trailing cold front will slowly cross the Mississippi River
on Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, instability will increase
to around 2000 J/kg, mainly across portions of west Tennessee and
north Mississippi. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
along and slightly ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon before it
crosses the Tennessee River late Tuesday night. Gusty winds
appear to be the main threat as mid level lapse rates are rather
poor around 6 C/km.

The front will become orphaned just to our east by Wednesday
afternoon as the parent low lifts into Quebec. Cloudy conditions
and cooler temperatures will persist across the region as an upper
low moves overhead and stalls.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain over the Mid-
South Thursday and into the weekend as the upper low interacts
with a tropical system coming north out of the Gulf of Mexico.
The track and intensity of the tropical system still remains a bit
uncertain, however, a good signal for heavy rainfall is
materializing. The latest WPC 5 day QPF shows a range of 3 to 5
inches across much of the Mid-South. The pattern looks to remain
unsettled through the long range forecast as the upper low remains
stalled over the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the forecast terminals after
sunrise today with southwest winds increasing to 5-8 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach northeast AR
this afternoon, though there is a potential for isolated coverage
elsewhere. This activity will likely move into West TN this
evening, posing the greatest risk for TS on station from late
afternoon through late evening. Another round of scattered showers
is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning along and ahead of
a cold front. MVFR ceilings will likely accompany this front,
mainly after 12z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJ