237
FXUS64 KMEG 190416
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1116 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Highs this week are forecast to reach the upper 80s. Lows are
expected to dip into the low 60s through this weekend. No
precipitation expected until early next week at the earliest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Fog last night never ended up materializing as forecast
in yesterday`s afternoon package, likely due to dry air moving in
from the northeast. A swing and a miss. Other than the removal of
widespread fog, the remainder of the forecast has generally
remained unchanged. Blocking to our east has persisted and a
shortwave trough has ejected from the rockies over the northern
Plains which will move into Canada today. Therefore, it is still
expected that weather will be quite persistent through this
weekend. Expect highs to be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows
approaching 65 to 60.

Model guidance has come to a consensus that the Appalachian
trough will be slowly ingested into the broader westerly flow by
Sunday. With the lack of significant blocking, a second trough,
which is behind the on in MT today, will eject from the rockies
and move east. At this point, ensemble spread drastically
increases in both the position/amplitude of this wave, but it
brings our next best chance at precipitation early next week.
But again, it is still too soon to speak on specific impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Clear skies and light, variable winds will encourage patchy fog
development overnight. Reduction in vsbys will be possible at MKL,
JBR, and TUP through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR CIGs will prevail.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS