927
FXUS64 KMEG 021613
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

It`s shaping up to be a very quiet day across the Mid-South. After
yesterday`s brief respite from the heat, temperatures will climb
into the low/mid 90s this afternoon. Dewpoints remain in the low
to mid 60s, but are likely to increase a few degrees through this
afternoon as southerly flow resumes. These modest dewpoints will
keep heat indices at bay, generally remaining in the 90s. A few
areas south of Tupelo could briefly approach 105F but no headlines
are warranted for today. The Excessive Heat Watch for tomorrow
remains on track as heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed
110F across much of the watch area. Those locations not included
may be included within a Heat Advisory.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

After a beautiful July day yesterday, the heat returns today with
highs in the 90s areawide. Though highs soar into the 90s today, the
humidity will stay low keeping heat indices below 105 degrees.
This will sadly change Wednesday and Thursday as humidity returns
to the region resulting in a likely need for heat products both
days. Rain chances return to the forecast beginning Wednesday
afternoon and through early next week as several fronts push
across the Mid- South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A beautiful night is on display at this hour as current temperatures
are in the mid 60s to lower 70s with mostly light winds at the
surface under clear skies areawide. We are currently sitting in
the northeast quadrant of a 596 dm ridge that is currently
centered over the ArkLaTex region. By daybreak, this ridge will
build east, nearly centering over our area by mid-afternoon
today. As the ridge builds, so will our temperatures across the
Mid-South resulting in a dry heat today with highs in the low to
upper 90s, highest temperatures over northeast Mississippi and
lowest temperatures over far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. We are expected to fall just below Heat Advisory
criteria (heat index values >=105 F) today as moisture doesn`t
quite reach our region.

The heat story changes tomorrow, however, as the ridge continues to
amplify and southerly winds usher in Gulf moisture, increasing our
dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s, and in turn increasing our
afternoon heat index values. An Excessive Heat Warning will likely
be needed over northeast Arkansas, the Mississippi Delta, and
portions of West Tennessee as these areas look to have heat index
values >=110 F tomorrow and Thursday. Areas not under an Excessive
Heat Warning will likely be under a Heat Advisory as these areas
look to have heat index values >=105 F. A week cold front will
push across the region Friday morning, as the ridge builds
southeast, decreasing our daily highs into the upper 80s to mid
90s through the weekend.

Aside from the heat this week, diurnally driven shower and
thunderstorm chances begin to increase tomorrow afternoon as a few
shortwaves begin dampening the ridge over far northeast Arkansas,
the Missouri Bootheel, and portions of Northwestern Tennessee.
Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase farther Thursday
as several shortwaves continue ejecting from the west, dampening
the ridge even more ahead of the aforementioned front Friday. A
conditional chance for severe weather exists both tomorrow and
Thursday in the afternoon to early evening hours over portions of
far northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest
Tennessee. As heights begin to fall and convection enters into
these areas both days, around 2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE,
20-25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and PWATs values upwards of
2-2.25" (nearing the 90th percentile) will be present. Though
severe chances remain on the lower end both days, primary threats
will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized heavy rainfall.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through
Saturday morning ahead of and behind the aforementioned cold
front. A brief lull in rainfall looks to exist Saturday afternoon
through Sunday as high pressure and quasi-zonal flow looks to move
over the region. Showers and thunderstorms look to head back into
the forecast to start next workweek. Stay tuned.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR and light winds to prevail through the next 30 hours, under high
pressure aloft.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for TNZ048>050-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB