494
FXUS64 KMEG 161139
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
639 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Showers will continue across north Mississippi today before dry
conditions return area wide this evening. Fog will possible each
night through the forecast period. Daily highs will be in the 80s
and morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s as high pressure reigns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The weak upper low of what was once Francine will finally exit the
Mid-South later this afternoon. The remaining moisture field from
Francine will interact with an inverted shortwave from east
Tennessee and will keep showers across north Mississippi through
early evening. The lack of instability once again today will keep
thunder out of the forecast. A half an inch may picked up across
this area before showers come to an end.

Clear skies, light winds, and a saturated surface supports fog
development each night through the forecast package. A pleasant
week is in store with sunny skies and highs in the 80s. Upper
level ridging will build in starting tomorrow as a blocking
pattern sets up. The Mid-South will be sandwiched between
Tropical System 8 and a deep low over the northern Rockies, but be
dominated by the northern ridge. Due to the placement of the
ridge, northerly flow is expected to keep days comfortable and
nights crisp with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A few -TSRA possible over northwest MS through midmorning. This
activity should remain outside the operational 25 mile VC radius.
A few dips down to MVFR CIGs may accompany -SHRA through
midmorning. Otherwise, no significant impacts for the TAF sites,
as rain gradually lifts west into AR.

Fog remains a concern overnight for the smaller terminals, with
saturated ground, light winds and little to no cloud cover. Other
than NAM Bufr soundings, and to a lesser extent, the GFS MAV
guidance, none of the short range guidance has picked up on fog
potential for tonight. But given the pattern, have keep a fog
mention after 06z for the smaller terminals. MEM should remain
VFR, given tendency to maintain modest nocturnal near-surface
mixing.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB