Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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237 FXUS64 KMEG 190416 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1116 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Highs this week are forecast to reach the upper 80s. Lows are expected to dip into the low 60s through this weekend. No precipitation expected until early next week at the earliest. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Fog last night never ended up materializing as forecast in yesterday`s afternoon package, likely due to dry air moving in from the northeast. A swing and a miss. Other than the removal of widespread fog, the remainder of the forecast has generally remained unchanged. Blocking to our east has persisted and a shortwave trough has ejected from the rockies over the northern Plains which will move into Canada today. Therefore, it is still expected that weather will be quite persistent through this weekend. Expect highs to be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows approaching 65 to 60. Model guidance has come to a consensus that the Appalachian trough will be slowly ingested into the broader westerly flow by Sunday. With the lack of significant blocking, a second trough, which is behind the on in MT today, will eject from the rockies and move east. At this point, ensemble spread drastically increases in both the position/amplitude of this wave, but it brings our next best chance at precipitation early next week. But again, it is still too soon to speak on specific impacts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Clear skies and light, variable winds will encourage patchy fog development overnight. Reduction in vsbys will be possible at MKL, JBR, and TUP through sunrise. Otherwise, VFR CIGs will prevail. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...ANS