Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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492 FXUS64 KMEG 142341 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Dry and progressively hotter conditions will persist through Sunday. Rain chances return early next week resulting in a slight relief from hotter temperatures. Hot and more humid conditions will return in the latter part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Current satellite imagery denotes remnant clouds pushing southeast over the Mid-South brought in from this morning`s decaying MCS. Otherwise, light and variable winds remain under mostly clear skies as a 1014 mb high remains fixed over the ArkLaMiss. A chance for sporadic fog development exists once again overnight, as winds go calm, in areas east of the Mississippi River, primarily in low-lying areas. Beginning early tomorrow morning, a relatively large mid-level ridge will begin building in over the region. This will lead to hotter and drier conditions for tomorrow and Sunday. A hot airmass will also move in to place and remain through the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the low to upper 90s with heat indices likely reaching the triple digits in areas along and south of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line. Our hottest day of 2024 will exist on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s as the aforementioned mid-level ridge continues to build east and amplify. Heat indices will likely reach into the triple digits across the entire Mid-South Sunday as continue to temperatures climb. One thing to note about our weekend heat: heat indices will likely not meet or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (>105 degrees F) as dew points are not expected to exceed the low to mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Even if heat products are not issued, we still strongly advise limiting outdoor activities and taking frequent breaks as we head into the weekend. Slight relief from the heat will return Monday as the mid-level ridge moves east and continues to amplify over the east coast. As the ridge builds east, Gulf moisture will edge in increasing our moisture profile here in the Mid-South. Rain chances also return as Gulf moisture is ushered in. 20-30% PoPs remain in the forecast Monday and Tuesday to account for this moisture return along with southerly flow. Though rain chances remain on the lower end heading towards the latter part of next week, diurnally driven pop-up convection will be possible each afternoon. Ample moisture will also lead to more humid conditions in the latter part of next week. Hot and humid conditions may result in a need for heat headlines late next week. The CPC 8-14 day outlook has us above normal through the end of June. Needless to say, Summer has arrived and is here to stay. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 No significant aviation weather impacts expected. Light winds and VFR will prevail, courtesy of high pressure aloft and at the surface. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...PWB