853
FXUS62 KMFL 011608
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1208 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be
seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off
the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly
flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon
thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains
to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong
synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be
the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse
rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg,
weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit
convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main
threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist
overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for
the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally
lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but
particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability
will be maximized).

The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still
maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid-
lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching
shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the
Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms
relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early
afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast,
while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late
afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High
temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the
mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over
Interior and SWFL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Early Next Week: As the gradient flow weakens within the boundary
layer and the front becomes less pronounced and diffuses over the
Atlantic waters to the north, a persistent fetch of east to
southeasterly winds will prevail through early next week. Subtle
pulses of low-level convergence, combined with theta-e maxima,
could spawn bursts of convection along the east coast in the
morning. However, most convection should be relegated to the
interior and southwest portions of the region. High temperatures
each day will mainly be in the lower to mid 90s across most areas,
except for the mid to upper 80s in the east coast metro areas.
The far western east coast metro areas could see highs around 90
degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s for most
areas, except for lower to mid 90s in the east coast metro areas
and around 100 in metro Collier County. Low temperatures will be
in the lower to mid 70s across most areas each night, with the
east coast metro areas experiencing lows in the upper 70s to near
80 degrees.

Middle to End of Next Week: Late next week, the ridge over the
Western Atlantic waters will break down, allowing a trough of low
pressure to build into the Eastern United States from the west.
This will cause the steering flow to shift to a more south to
southwest direction over South Florida. Concurrently, deeper
moisture from the Caribbean Sea may start to move into South
Florida, potentially increasing the probability of precipitation
(POPs) late next week, with the highest coverage expected over the
east coast metro areas where sea breezes collide. High
temperatures will rise in the middle to end of next week, reaching
the mid to upper 90s across most areas, except around 90 degrees
in the west coast metro areas. Heat indices will also increase,
likely reaching the lower to mid 100s across most areas, except
around 100 degrees in the west coast metro areas. Low temperatures
will remain in the 70s across most areas, with the east coast
metro areas around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with
any thunderstorm threat this afternoon likely confined to KAPF. A
few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through the night at the east coast terminals. Breezy easterly
winds with gusts 20-25 kts will persist through the daytime hours
before gusts drop off overnight. There remains an approximately
30% change of a wind shift to the SW in the mid-afternoon
timeframe at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the
Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria
by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the
Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight
periods will remain possible the next few days.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for
the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to
decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  86  77  88 /  40  50  50  50
West Kendall     75  88  74  89 /  40  50  50  50
Opa-Locka        76  88  75  90 /  40  50  50  50
Homestead        77  87  76  88 /  50  50  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  76  85  77  86 /  40  50  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  76  87 /  40  50  50  50
Pembroke Pines   77  89  77  90 /  40  50  50  50
West Palm Beach  75  86  74  88 /  40  50  50  50
Boca Raton       75  86  75  88 /  40  50  50  50
Naples           74  93  75  93 /  20  60  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr