414
FXUS62 KMFL 011940
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be
seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off
the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly
flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon
thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains
to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong
synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be
the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse
rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg,
weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit
convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main
threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist
overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for
the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally
lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but
particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability
will be maximized).

The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still
maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid-
lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching
shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the
Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms
relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early
afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast,
while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late
afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High
temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the
mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over
Interior and SWFL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A mid-level trough will move across the region to close out the
weekend and kick off the work week with increasing moisture and
the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the normal
diurnally-driven pattern on Monday. By Tuesday, the trough axis
exits into the Atlantic waters and the pattern begins to return
to something more diurnally-driven with morning Atlantic showers
transitioning into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms
by afternoon and early evening.

The surface high will continue to linger around the region
through midweek before the next frontal boundary emanating from
low pressure over Canada enters the southeastern United States.
The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by
late in the week. South Florida will be wedged between the stalled
frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture
in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high
back into the Atlantic will mean a transition to southerly to
west-southwesterly flow across much of the area to close out the
forecast period Saturday and Sunday.

The warm airmass combined with flow over the peninsula will mean
a considerable warming trend through the week which could lead to
heat illness risk climbing by late week. This will need to be
monitored, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features
both to the north and to the south, in case of changes which could
create some major revisions to the forecast for these time
periods. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled will continue to be
the message for a good part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with
any thunderstorm threat this afternoon likely confined to KAPF. A
few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through the night at the east coast terminals. Breezy easterly
winds with gusts 20-25 kts will persist through the daytime hours
before gusts drop off overnight. There remains an approximately
30% change of a wind shift to the SW in the mid-afternoon
timeframe at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the
Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria
by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the
Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight
periods will remain possible the next few days.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for
the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to
decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  86  76  88 /  40  50  60  70
West Kendall     75  88  74  89 /  40  50  60  70
Opa-Locka        76  88  75  89 /  40  50  60  70
Homestead        77  87  76  88 /  50  50  70  70
Fort Lauderdale  76  85  77  86 /  40  50  60  70
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  77  87 /  40  50  60  70
Pembroke Pines   77  89  77  91 /  40  50  60  70
West Palm Beach  75  86  74  88 /  40  50  50  60
Boca Raton       75  86  76  89 /  40  50  60  70
Naples           74  93  74  93 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Carr