Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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853 FXUS62 KMFL 011608 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1208 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg, weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability will be maximized). The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid- lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast, while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over Interior and SWFL. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Early Next Week: As the gradient flow weakens within the boundary layer and the front becomes less pronounced and diffuses over the Atlantic waters to the north, a persistent fetch of east to southeasterly winds will prevail through early next week. Subtle pulses of low-level convergence, combined with theta-e maxima, could spawn bursts of convection along the east coast in the morning. However, most convection should be relegated to the interior and southwest portions of the region. High temperatures each day will mainly be in the lower to mid 90s across most areas, except for the mid to upper 80s in the east coast metro areas. The far western east coast metro areas could see highs around 90 degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s for most areas, except for lower to mid 90s in the east coast metro areas and around 100 in metro Collier County. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s across most areas each night, with the east coast metro areas experiencing lows in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Middle to End of Next Week: Late next week, the ridge over the Western Atlantic waters will break down, allowing a trough of low pressure to build into the Eastern United States from the west. This will cause the steering flow to shift to a more south to southwest direction over South Florida. Concurrently, deeper moisture from the Caribbean Sea may start to move into South Florida, potentially increasing the probability of precipitation (POPs) late next week, with the highest coverage expected over the east coast metro areas where sea breezes collide. High temperatures will rise in the middle to end of next week, reaching the mid to upper 90s across most areas, except around 90 degrees in the west coast metro areas. Heat indices will also increase, likely reaching the lower to mid 100s across most areas, except around 100 degrees in the west coast metro areas. Low temperatures will remain in the 70s across most areas, with the east coast metro areas around 80 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with any thunderstorm threat this afternoon likely confined to KAPF. A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible through the night at the east coast terminals. Breezy easterly winds with gusts 20-25 kts will persist through the daytime hours before gusts drop off overnight. There remains an approximately 30% change of a wind shift to the SW in the mid-afternoon timeframe at KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight periods will remain possible the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 86 77 88 / 40 50 50 50 West Kendall 75 88 74 89 / 40 50 50 50 Opa-Locka 76 88 75 90 / 40 50 50 50 Homestead 77 87 76 88 / 50 50 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 76 85 77 86 / 40 50 50 50 N Ft Lauderdale 76 85 76 87 / 40 50 50 50 Pembroke Pines 77 89 77 90 / 40 50 50 50 West Palm Beach 75 86 74 88 / 40 50 50 50 Boca Raton 75 86 75 88 / 40 50 50 50 Naples 74 93 75 93 / 20 60 50 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Carr