394
FXUS62 KMFL 090525
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to wind down this evening
making way for a mainly dry overnight period across South Florida.
CAMs are hinting at the potential for a few early morning showers
again for Sunday morning with maybe an isolated thunderstorm or
two. Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase during
the late morning to early afternoon hours with the sea breezes. &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Unsettled weather expected this weekend with a mid/upper level
trough across the area today and slowly moving off to the east
tomorrow, and surface/upper level high pressure over the northern
Gulf trying to nose into the area. Morning ACARS soundings across
South FL show fairly deep moisture up through about 500 mb, and PWAT
values running 2-2.2 inches from west to east. This will allow for
efficient rain makers today as we saw this morning across portions
of the east coast metro and over towards Naples. While that
temporarily stabilized the atmosphere, things should destabilize
again late morning into the afternoon as we approach peak heating.
Additional showers and storms are expected through this evening.
Locally heavy rain will be the main threat, however an isolated
stronger storm with gusty winds can`t be ruled out especially across
the lake region and over into Palm Beach. High temps today will be
in the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s and peak heat indices will be over 100 degrees this
afternoon. While some locations may approach heat advisory criteria,
the expected afternoon convection and cloud cover will should keep
many locations from reaching criteria, so held off on headlines for
now.

Convection over the land will wane late this evening and it`ll be a
mild night with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to
around 80 close to the coasts. Overnight precip will be almost a
carbon copy of this morning with most convection remaining over the
waters, however some pre-dawn showers and storms may impact the far
southern peninsula again.

On Sunday the mid/upper level trough moves further off to the east,
however hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula
during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the
primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows
remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated
urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to
mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will
play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed
across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with
afternoon/evening convection expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Unsettled weather expected this weekend with a mid/upper level
trough across the area today and slowly moving off to the east
tomorrow, and surface/upper level high pressure over the northern
Gulf trying to nose into the area. Morning ACARS soundings across
South FL show fairly deep moisture up through about 500 mb, and PWAT
values running 2-2.2 inches from west to east. This will allow for
efficient rain makers today as we saw this morning across portions
of the east coast metro and over towards Naples. While that
temporarily stabilized the atmosphere, things should destabilize
again late morning into the afternoon as we approach peak heating.
Additional showers and storms are expected through this evening.
Locally heavy rain will be the main threat, however an isolated
stronger storm with gusty winds can`t be ruled out especially across
the lake region and over into Palm Beach. High temps today will be
in the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s and peak heat indices will be over 100 degrees this
afternoon. While some locations may approach heat advisory criteria,
the expected afternoon convection and cloud cover will should keep
many locations from reaching criteria, so held off on headlines for
now.

Convection over the land will wane late this evening and it`ll be a
mild night with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to
around 80 close to the coasts. Overnight precip will be almost a
carbon copy of this morning with most convection remaining over the
waters, however some pre-dawn showers and storms may impact the far
southern peninsula again.

On Sunday the mid/upper level trough moves further off to the east,
however hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula
during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the
primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows
remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated
urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to
mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will
play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed
across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with
afternoon/evening convection expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.Sunday Night Through Monday Night...

An mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the
Western Atlantic waters, as a mid to upper level low develops over
the Western Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the the steering
flow to remain south southwest over South Florida allowing for
deep tropical moisture to start to work into the region from the
Caribbean Sea. This in turn will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop over South Florida with the
focus over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea
breezes collide.

Highs on Monday will be around 90 degrees over most areas except
for the west coast metro areas where they will be in the mid to
upper 80s. Temperatures will remain warm at night with lows in the
mid to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas.

.Tuesday through Friday Of Next Week...
The long range models are showing that high pressure will remain
over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low
over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are
showing a tropical disturbance to move northward from the
Caribbean Sea into the Central of eastern Gulf of Mexico. This
will allow for the continuation of the south southwest wind flow
over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to
work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, likely
to widespread rains along with some thunderstorms are forecast for
South Florida for the middle to end of next week. Some of the
rains and thunderstorms could also produce heavy rains over South
Florida during this time frame. More on this in the hydro section
below.

Highs for this time will also be cooler over South Florida mainly
in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rains. However, the lows
will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior
areas to around 80 metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Although a few showers can`t be ruled out this morning, the best
chances for shower and thunderstorms look to be in the early-mid
afternoon period with TEMPOs likely to eventually be required for
some terminals. Outside of thunderstorm outflows light and
variable winds this morning will trend SE at the east coast
terminals and W-SW at KAPF by this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters
this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with
winds 5-15 kts and out of the south/southwest and seas 2 ft or
less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The long range models are showing that the PWAT values over South
Florida will be increasing to 2.5 to 2.8 inches over South
Florida for the middle to end of next week due to the deep
tropical moisture working into South Florida. These PWAT values
will be near or at the maximum PWAT values for this time of year.

These high PWAT values will allow heavy rainfall to occur over
the region from Tuesday through Friday evening. These heavy rains
will allow for some flooding conditions to develop over South
Florida for the middle to end of next week, as the grounds are
becoming saturated from the daily showers and thunderstorms that
been ongoing for the last several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  90  80 /  70  40  80  60
West Kendall     91  76  92  79 /  70  50  80  60
Opa-Locka        92  79  92  80 /  70  40  80  60
Homestead        90  78  90  80 /  60  50  70  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  81 /  60  40  80  60
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  90  80 /  60  40  80  60
Pembroke Pines   93  80  93  80 /  60  40  80  60
West Palm Beach  92  77  91  78 /  50  40  80  60
Boca Raton       92  78  92  80 /  50  40  80  60
Naples           91  80  90  80 /  50  40  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...Carr