256
FXUS62 KMFL 230519
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
119 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mid-level high pressure remains well-established over the Gulf of
Mexico including the peninsula of Florida. A surface boundary
remains to the south of the area separating drier air from the
tropical airmass in the Caribbean. The combination of the drier
air and high pressure aloft will again bring shower and
thunderstorm chances below climatological norms for this time of
year today and again on Monday. A warming trend commences as we
head into Monday but the dewpoint recovery may take a bit longer
thanks to a lack of atmospheric moisture transport from the
tropics. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s generally with heat
index values in the lower 100s.

The light northerly to northeasterly drainage flow returns tonight
and will again lead to a light and variable start for Monday.
Eventually easterly flow will pick up as the pressure gradient
tightens between high pressure to the north and the boundary to the
south. Morning coastal showers will transition inland and west
through the afternoon and evening before the remnant convection
focuses over the local waters overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tuesday will likely be the driest day of the long term period.
Moderate easterly flow and a lingering surface boundary across the
FL Straits will keep much of the precip over the far southern
portion of the peninsula, with just low end chance PoPs around the
lake region.

Attention for the middle to end of the week turns to an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms currently over the NW
Caribbean. Conditions appear favorable for tropical development over
the next several days as the system moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. While there is plenty of uncertainty at this point regarding
impacts to South FL, increasing moisture across the area will
increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area,
with the highest PoPs over SW FL Wednesday through Friday. WPC has
much of the region in a Marginal risk for excessive rain on Day 4,
and a Slight risk west and south of the lake on Day 5. Continue to
monitor the forecast over the next couple days. Once a system forms,
confidence will start to increase regarding direct impacts of
rainfall, wind, etc for South FL.

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with high temps ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The rest of the week temps will be
in the mid to upper 80s, and depending on timing and coverage of
rainfall, some locations may end up cooler than that. Overnight lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 70s through the end of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable overnight into the morning. Some light,
scattered shower activity develop near the east coast TAF sites
in the morning hours. Easterly wind flow will increase to around
10 KT around 16-18Z, which will push the shower activity towards
the interior as the afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds will veer
out of the west and strengthen in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze
develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Generally light winds will continue with a decaying frontal boundary
lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much
less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a
frontal passage. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may
accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Winds will veer easterly and
strengthen early in the week as the pressure gradient across the
region tightens. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in
the northwestern Caribbean mid to late week which could cause
deteriorating conditions across the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as
northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor
coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low-
lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended
into Monday. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues
for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days.

High Tide Tides...
* Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun, 1:21 AM Mon, 2:09 PM Mon
* South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun, 12:40 AM Mon, 1:28 PM Mon
* Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun, 12:25 AM Mon, 1:14 PM Mon
* Naples Bay, North - 5:50 PM Sun, 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon
* Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:53 PM Sun, 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  90  79 /  20  20  40  50
West Kendall     92  77  91  79 /  20  20  40  50
Opa-Locka        92  79  91  79 /  20  20  40  40
Homestead        91  79  89  79 /  10  20  50  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  79 /  20  20  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  79  89  79 /  20  20  30  30
Pembroke Pines   93  79  92  80 /  20  20  40  40
West Palm Beach  91  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  20
Boca Raton       91  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  30
Naples           93  76  94  79 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...JS