Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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987 FXUS62 KMFL 201750 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Typical summertime conditions will be on tap for South Florida today, with chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the interior and southwest Florida coastline. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show moderate instability and lapse rates in place across the area, with dry air in the mid- levels with near climo moisture near the surface. The combination of these factors has allowed for a few isolated low-topped showers along the East Coast earlier today, but the dry air aloft has helped limit ascent and further vertical development. Activity will continue through the afternoon, mainly over the interior and Gulf Coast as the dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further inland. On Friday, models show a large area of enhanced moisture associated with a weak surface trough over the southwest Atlantic gradually migrating towards the region. Some of these models show dry air potentially wrapping around the southwestern side of the trough and over our region, which could help limit widespread rainfall across South FL. Winds will veer slightly from the southeast, which will help in concentrating scattered showers and thunderstorm activity towards the Lake region in the afternoon hours. Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s. Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the day, with highs in the low 90s. Conditions on Friday could get slightly warmer, with temperatures along the East Coast potentially reaching the 90s. Temperatures indexes will hit triple digits each afternoon but should remain below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Friday Night through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be characterized by mid-level ridging centered over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over the western US. This pattern will essentially reverse itself Sunday into early next week, as the ridge retrogrades into the southwestern US and longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda will remain the main feature of interest through the weekend maintaining moderate E/SE low-level flow over South Florida. Towards the end of the extended period, the aforementioned high will shift eastward resulting in sea-breeze driven circulations prevailing by early next week. In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely follow those of a typical easterly regime through the weekend with the best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters and east coast in the morning and early afternoon, followed by the risk of showers and storms increasing on the west coast later in the afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall, rain chances look to be in the high-end chance to low-end likely (PoPs ~ 45-60%) range through this period, with near to just above climo deep-layer moisture (PWATs ~1.9-2.2"), will partially offset synoptic subsidence from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly flow weakens early next week, the models continue to indicate the diurnal evolution of daily storms shifting to become more interior-focused. Temperatures will be just above seasonal and quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with heat indices peaking around 103- 107. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Generally VFR through the period. KAPF could see brief periods of MVFR conditions later today as SHRA/TSRA develop along the Gulf Coast, which could prompt short-fuse amendments. Gusty easterly flow prevails through the evening, with wind speeds decreasing overnight and into tomorrow, when flow veer from the southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Winds begin relaxing a little with both wind speeds and seas gradually dropping to below advisory criteria on both sides of the peninsula later today. The SCA will expire this morning for the Gulf, and in the early afternoon for the Atlantic waters. Moderate E/ESE winds will prevail through the end of the work week, but brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds will accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Persisting robust coastal easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches through Friday, then relaxing enough for risk level to drop to moderate during the weekend. Surf should also gradually decrease today and tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 81 89 / 10 40 40 50 West Kendall 76 91 79 91 / 10 50 40 60 Opa-Locka 78 91 81 91 / 10 40 30 50 Homestead 79 90 80 89 / 10 40 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 81 88 / 10 40 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 81 89 / 10 40 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 93 81 92 / 10 40 30 50 West Palm Beach 76 90 79 90 / 10 30 20 50 Boca Raton 77 90 81 90 / 10 30 30 50 Naples 75 92 78 92 / 20 50 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 670. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV