946
FXUS62 KMFL 201703
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

With the previously stalled frontal boundary finally pushing south
of our area this morning, South Florida should enjoy generally drier
conditions for the rest of today and tomorrow! ACARS data at MIA
captured the northerly wind shift earlier this morning, along with
the  drier mid-level air mass and PWATs trending down (down to 1.34
inches as of 12:30PM, near the 10th percentile for this time of
year!). Nevertheless, there could still be some isolated showers and
storms that develop later this afternoon along sea breeze
boundaries, mainly south of Alligator Alley. Some of these showers
and storms could be capable of producing heavy rain, with general
accumulations of 1-2 inches, and localized amounts up to 2-4
inches possible as some moisture still lingers near the lower
levels. This could result in localized flooding, especially if
these heavy rain producers sit over areas with already saturated
soils.

Ensembles and ECMWF insist in pushing the aforementioned mid-lvl
trough further south and through SoFlo on Saturday. In response,
deeper ENE flow establishes, although still remaining weak
(generally 3-8kt). This will be reinforced by broad high pressure
developing over much of the SE CONUS, which will also usher drier
air into the mid levels across the state. Nevertheless, hydro models
keep at least chances for afternoon scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with POPs in the 40-50 percent.

Temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain above seasonal
climo, but stubborn cloudiness and possible rain activity should
help in avoiding advisory criteria through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

As we wrap up the weekend and move into the new week, an expansive
mid-level ridge will stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and into
southeastern CONUS as the lingering trough drifts into the Atlantic.
With this ridging, dry mid-level air will advect into the region
with warm temperatures aloft. Although the mid-level drying is quite
evident, with PWATs dipping down into the 1.4-1.7" range over
portions of the area, there will be enough moisture remaining in the
lower level with the assistance of a stationary surface boundary
just to the south of the Keys keeping a sufficient supply of
moisture in the southern half of the Peninsula. This will support
daily scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region. With the persistent easterly flow regime, the highest chance
for rain will be over the western portions of South Florida. The
relatively stable airmass will limit the deep convection most likely
to the far southern third of the FL Peninsula.

Looking further into the extended forecast, confidence is still
minimal, as uncertainty increases if a portion of the Central
American Gyre may consolidate into a more defined area of surface
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean or southern GOMEX (if
forms at all). With the expansive forecast lead times, we will
continue to monitor the tropics as the limited model guidance is
indecisive and jumbled at the time being. In the upcoming days and
as confidence grows, we will be watching the potential for the low`s
development and the Gulf of Mexico`s future closely. The latest
National Hurricane Center 2AM outlook has a 40% chance of tropical
formation in the next 7 days.

Temperatures will be near/just above seasonal normals with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90 and lows in the 70s. While
the heat indices will likely reach the triple digits, the drier air
will likely provide a relief from heat advisories due to dew points
dropping into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light
northerly/northeasterly winds should persist. ISO SHRA/TSRA is
once again expected to develop later this afternoon, but coverage
is forecast to remain inland of the sites, so no inclusion of
TEMPOS or PROB30s at this time. Conditions should improve shortly
after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Generally light winds continue today with a decaying frontal
boundary moving across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin decreasing today as drier air slowly filters from the north
behind the front. But there will be enough leftover moisture for
isolated thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours, then
the decreasing trend continues into the weekend. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Minor to moderate coastal flooding continues during periods of high
tide through the short period. These elevated tides will continue to
affect all coastal areas of South Florida through late this morning,
for which a coastal flood advisory remains in effect. Conditions
should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal
influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal
flooding during high tide. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip
currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of
days.

NAPLES HIGH TIDE TIMES...2:57PM this afternoon, 2:15AM tomorrow

LAKE WORTH HIGH TIDE TIMES...10:39 PM tonight, 11:18AM tomorrow

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
West Kendall     74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  30
Opa-Locka        75  91  76  92 /  20  30  20  30
Homestead        75  90  76  90 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  76  88  76  89 /  10  30  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  76  90  76  90 /  10  30  20  30
Pembroke Pines   76  92  76  92 /  20  30  20  30
West Palm Beach  76  90  76  90 /  10  30  20  20
Boca Raton       76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  20
Naples           75  91  76  92 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ069-075-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV