Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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816 FXUS62 KMFL 170505 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 105 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Ridging begins to build over the southeastern US today as a surface high expands across the eastern seaboard towards Florida. As a result, a breezy easterly wind regime sets up across our region today. While much of the moisture plume has shifted westward over the Gulf of Mexico at this point, PWAT values over our area remain somewhat elevated (in the range of 1.9-2.1, which is climatologically high for this time of year). This could lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze boundaries later today but chances remain pretty limited by the gradual intrusion of dry air at the lower levels (PoPs 20-30%). Coverage will be maximized across interior and southwest Florida. The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday as ridging and the surface high expand and strengthen. This will help to increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to more climatological values. Isolated to scattered showers could still pop up along the sea breeze boundaries during the early afternoon with coverage favored over the interior and southwest FL. Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Some uncertainty enters the forecast mid-week as a ridge of high pressure develops over the eastern seaboard of the United States. There are a pair of features that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development. The first feature is located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to begin the period and could gradually develop as it moves westward or west-northwestward. While the moisture from this create concerns for some portions of the Gulf coast, our region could see drier air as we remain well to the east under the influence of high pressure. The second area being monitored is in the southwestern Atlantic where a trough or low is expected to materialize in much of the guidance by mid- week. Forecast confidence begins to nosedive going from Wednesday to Thursday as there is a quite a spread in potential solution with some solutions showing generally unsettled weather with the trough or low approaching the southeastern United States Thursday into Friday. A few items to watch are the potential development of the feature in question, how the high pressure is pinched back by it, and how much rainfall some previously saturated portions of southern Florida see this week. The potential for some drier periods of time will help with drainage though some moisture could return as soon as late Tuesday/early Wednesday as an area of tropical moisture rounds the high ahead of any potential disturbance. Warm temperatures do remain in the forecast through most of the week with summer taking hold over South Florida. For the latest outlook on any potential tropical development, check out the National Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected for the 06Z TAF period with potential for some quick moving showers at times, primarily in the late morning to afternoon hours for the eastern TAF sites, and the late afternoon at APF. Light, variable winds and dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the evening. Breezy easterly winds will begin in the morning hours and prevail for the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week. Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as onshore flow increases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 78 88 / 20 40 60 60 West Kendall 77 90 77 89 / 20 40 50 60 Opa-Locka 79 90 78 89 / 20 40 50 60 Homestead 79 89 78 87 / 20 40 60 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 87 79 86 / 20 40 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 87 78 87 / 20 40 50 60 Pembroke Pines 80 91 79 89 / 20 40 50 60 West Palm Beach 78 88 77 87 / 20 50 50 60 Boca Raton 79 88 78 87 / 20 40 60 60 Naples 76 94 77 91 / 10 40 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...JS