901
FXUS66 KMFR 222242
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
342 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...Autumn began at 544 AM PDT this morning.

The story of our weather for this week is consistent
with previous expectations. Dry conditions are expected into
Wednesday morning, with a warming trend into Tuesday (with an
exception of warming only into Monday for Brookings). Gusty
easterly ridge top winds at the Coast Range will be stronger
tonight with gusts up to 30 mph. Weaker ridge top winds for the
Coast Range will veer to southeast on Monday night with peak gusts
up to 20 mph.

The high temperature at Brookings has reached 83 so far today, and
should be similar with 84 degrees forecast for Monday. Inland,
highs mainly in the 80s on the west side and 70s on the east side
today will trend to the 90s on the west side and 80s on the east
side on Tuesday.

Our weather will change with the arrival of a cold front late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a chance of rain from
Port Orford northward Wednesday afternoon, then a slight chance
into southwest Oregon (mainly Douglas County) as the front weakens
Wednesday night. The other aspects will be the start of a cooling
trend, and gusty southwest to west winds east of the Cascades late
Wednesday into Wednesday evening with gusts up to 30 mph.

Thursday looks to be cooler but dry. There are still a minimum of
ensemble members indicating a slower arrival of the front, as late
as late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. But, general
agreement on the strength of the front.

Another weaker front is expected around late Thursday night into
Friday, with additional cooling. The outlook is that it will be
around the next Friday (Day 14) before a stronger front with an
chance of appreciable rain is on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Increasing coverage of high clouds across the region is expected
today. This wont lead to any categorical changes to our inland TAF
sites as VFR conditions are expected throughout this cycle. However,
North Bend will see IFR conditions return tonight with LIFR
conditions likely (70-80%) through the morning hours. Otherwise,
typical diurnal afternoon breezes are expected this afternoon before
wind speeds relax overnight.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, September 22, 2024...A thermal
trough will continue along/near the coast through Monday night.
Consequently, strong northerly winds and steep seas are expected
through Tuesday morning. The thermal trough is forecast to move
inland with weakening winds and easing seas Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will result in relatively calm seas and light wind speeds
through at least Thursday night. Friday through Saturday will see an
incoming fresh swell coupled with strong wind-driven seas which will
likely lead to very steep and hazardous seas. We will ultimately
need some hazards in play through this stretch, especially across
our southern waters.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$