Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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281 FXUS66 KMFR 102122 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 222 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .DISCUSSION...The area is heading into a rather quiet period for the next week or so, and although there is a pattern change expected by next weekend, there will not be much in the way of impactful weather through at least next weekend. Currently, ridging extends north over the Pacific Northwest, with a closed low off the coast of southern California, and a large trough in the Gulf of Alaska. This general pattern will remain virtually unchanged through the rest of the week, although a passing shortwave to our north will flatten out the ridge midweek, producing more zonal flow over the area midweek. Overall, this will produce warm and dry conditions through Thursday, with daily highs running roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Beginning Friday, the closed low to our south will weaken and push onshore through the Great Basin, breaking the stagnant pattern and allowing our ridge to shift east while the large trough in the Gulf of Alaska nudges ever closer toward the Pacific Northwest before finally passing over the area through the weekend. This will result in a cooling trend, with temperatures returning to near-normal values for early to mid June. The precipitation chances, however, will depend on the exact track of the trough, and where the main belt of moisture will travel. The most likely scenario keeps both of these to the north, with showers remaining confined to the coast, the Umpqua Basin, and the western slopes of the Cascades north of Crater Lake. Should the trough track a bit farther south, precipitation chances will also shift south, although confidence in this scenario is much lower. We will also need to keep an eye out for thunderstorm potential, but with the low by then missing off the California coast, the system will not be able to tap into the southerly moisture source that we typically need for widespread convection. In short, expect two seasons this week: dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday, followed by cooler conditions and the potential for showers through the weekend. -BPN && .AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...LIFR ceilings/visibilities and also patchy drizzle is peeling southward toward Brookings this morning. Elsewhere any ceilings at the coast and Umpqua will dissipate by early afternoon with VFR everywhere else and VFR will prevail today. Gusty north winds (up to 25 kt) will develop at North Bend this afternoon. Marine stratus with MVFR/IFR will likely return to the same general areas along the coast this evening or overnight, but probably not as far inland, while VFR continues to prevail everywhere else. -Schaaf/Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, June 10, 2024...A persistent thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep seas south of Cape Blanco today through tonight. Winds and seas subside briefly early Tuesday, but north winds increase again Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as another moderate west swell arrives. Have extended the small craft advisory and have also issued a hazardous seas watch for this potential. On Wednesday, the potential for gales and very steep, hazardous seas south of Cape Blanco will further occur. Will wait until the details come in better focus to issue the gales. Winds and seas remain elevated through Thursday, but should lower some late in the week. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$