101
FXUS66 KMFR 161319
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
619 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing mainly clear skies
across southern Oregon and northern California this morning.
Offshore, a frontal boundary associated with a broad area of low
pressure remains offshore, but it will dig southward as it pushes
into the Pacific Northwest later today. The big thing regarding
this low is that there is the general track of the cutoff
circulation amongst the broader low and its associated frontal
boundary. What we do know is that today will see cooler afternoon
temperatures and breezy winds especially inland. Showers on the
hand, remain somewhat nebulous. Ensembles are split on the timing
and location of this circulation, and the National Blend of Models
wants to keep most of southern Oregon and northern California
precipitation free (less than 5 percent chance of a passing
shower). The forecast favors a slight chance (around 15 percent)
of precipitation for portions of the the west side of Oregon and
northern Klamath and Lake Counties. The primary mode of
precipitation will be showers, and a thunderstorm may be possible
north of Elkton in Douglas County -- but the main thunderstorm
threat will remain to the north in the Willamette Valley.

Part of the reasoning for this forecast is the overachieving
nature of the showers on Saturday in Douglas County. It stands to
reason that the showers will overachieve once again, especially as
they`re tied to the terrain. Still, it is worth noting that
uncertainty is pretty high regarding precipitation, and have
chosen that slight chance instead of ensembles suggesting dry
conditions due to timing differences. Please note, the ensembles
do agree that northern California will be dry today.

As mentioned earlier, the chilly conditions will be downright cold
east of the Cascades this morning and again tonight. A freeze
warning for this morning and a freeze watch for Sunday night into
Monday morning continues. Temperatures look to be well below
normal once again today. After today, the low pushes eastward and
we enter a pattern juxtaposed between a ridge and the low.
However, conditions will fully dry out and warm up to normal and
even above normal by mid week, and it will begin to feel like
summer once again. -Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...VFR ceilings and visibilities remain most
likely through the TAF window. Showers will build by the afternoon
and evening hours over the Cascades and within much of Douglas
County. Cloud bases look fairly high with ceilings around 3000 to
5000 feet. In addition, the atmosphere dries rapidly behind the
trough axis, so any showers should really lighten up by the evening
hours. Brief periods of MVFR visibilities are possible near Roseburg
this afternoon under any heavy showers. The probability of thunder
is also pretty low(<5%) across the forecast area this afternoon,
although its closer to 10% in northern Douglas County.

Other than clouds and showers, it will be fairly windy near
Klamath Falls this afternoon with wind gusts up to 30 knots out of
the west.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 310 AM Sunday, June 16, 2024...A small area of
steep seas are anticipated south of Brookings this morning before
conditions weaken slightly during the day. Then, north winds
strengthen late Sunday night with steep seas expected south of Port
Orford again, at least into Tuesday morning, and possibly for much
of the week.

The week will be filled with persistent north winds over the coastal
waters. Areas north of Cape Blanco are looking at north winds of 10
to 20 knots while south of Cape Blanco is looking at 15 to 25 knots.
Overall seas are expected to remain under 10 feet but areas south of
Port Orford is likely to see some steep wind driven wave action at
times due to the north winds approaching 25 knots.  -Sargent/Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for ORZ029>031.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ084-085.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for CAZ084-
     085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening
     to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$