629
FXUS66 KMFR 231103
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
403 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...Strengthening high pressure through Tuesday wIll
allow for afternoon highs to increase 5 to 10 degrees today and
then again Tuesday when values will reach 15 to 20 degrees above
normal. An approaching upper trough will then allow for changing
weather Wednesday with rain chances at the coast and Umpqua,
cooler temperatures and increasing and gusty south winds for the
mountains and east side.

Rain amounts Wednesday will be somewhat measly, mainly less than
a tenth of an inch across Coos, Curry and Douglas counties.
Isolated mountainous locations may see up to two tenths in these
areas.

Flat zonal flow continues over the region thereafter through
Friday with another weak cold front grazing the CWA to the north
Friday night. Rain amounts should stay isolated to the coast and
probably only Coos county with very light amounts. Stavish

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z TAFS...VFR conditions prevail across the region
with high level clouds streaming over the area. IFR/LIFR conditions
have again returned to the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the
Coquille Basin and will persist into early Monday morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the rest of the area
through the TAF period. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Sunday, September 22, 2024...A thermal
trough remains in place over the Oregon coast. The trough will
continue bringing gusty northerly winds through early Tuesday
morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for wind-built
steep seas of water south of Bandon through Tuesday at 11 AM.
Periods of very steep and hazardous seas are possible south of
Pistol River late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

After the current Advisory ends, northwest swell will keep seas in
the 7 to 8 foot range with longer periods keeping seas below
Advisory levels in the middle of the week. Northwest swell is
forecast to increase on Friday morning, with swell-built steep seas
possible through Friday and Saturday. Additional guidance will help
to determine the exact timing and levels of conditions over the
weekend. -TAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Main items of concern are current offshore flow
with gusty northeast winds over Curry and Western Josephine
counties, and then increasing south wind on Wednesday with low
humidity for the east. Current values at Red Mound are NE at
18G37 mph with RH near 30 percent. This condition will abate this
morning as the thermal trough expands up the coast with a
weakening pressure gradient. Latest look continues to support
conditions remaining a notch outside of Watch/Warning criteria for
the east Wednesday. Expect South winds 15-25 mph gusting to 35
mph with MinRH readings of 15 to 20 percent in Lake and Modoc
Counties. Stavish

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-370-376.

&&

$$