107
FXUS63 KMKX 260804
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
304 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms on Sunday, with a very small
  potential for severe thunderstorms with hail and/or wind gusts.

- Southeast winds and building waves are likely to create
  Moderate Swim Risk conditions on Sunday for Lake Michigan
  beaches. A High Swim Risk cannot be ruled out.

- Chance for showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, particularly in
  the afternoon hours (roughly 40% chance), but quieter weather
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today through Monday night:

Showers and weak storms will gradually push in by around
daybreak this morning as the surface low and corresponding upper
shortwave lifts northeast into the region. This system looks
likely to make for a fairly wet morning and early afternoon with
any individual area looking at a 3-4 hour period of mostly
moderate rainfall (far west/northwest CWA will see rain last
much of the day). Largely, chances for storms seems fairly
limited but with some weak instability, especially along and
south of I-94 some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Now in the far southeast the situation is a bit different as
rain should hold off until at least noon which could increase
severe risk. However, models continue to keep the warm front
south of the region with limited instability overall. This
will limit the potential for severe storms as anything would
have to be elevated and even then instability will be very
limited. However we cannot rule out the very slight potential
for some stronger wind and small hail.

As the initial swath of rain swings through the surface low
will begin moving overhead the region. We should (70%) see the
dry slot impact the region for a few hours keeping things dry
for a few hours in the mid to late afternoon. However later in
the afternoon and into the early evening some showers and maybe
even a few storms will be expected in association with the
surface low. Given cooler conditions aloft we should expect some
better lapse rates which could (10%) give some secondary risk
for hailers during this period. Models suggest largely just
showers but conditions support at least weak potential.

The deepening surface low will gradually push northwest into
the northern Great Lakes region and into Ontario. Monday may
feature some additional precip chances (35-45%) due to some
additional shortwave activity in the region along with some
moisture. Best chances for precip are focused further west but
there will be some storms chances for much of the CWA. Storms
will be at least partially diurnally driven as instability
increase somewhat into the afternoon across the area. Stronger
storms not expected at this time due to lack of shear.

Southeast winds and building waves are likely to create Moderate
Swim Risk conditions on today for Lake Michigan beaches. A High
Swim Risk cannot be ruled out but trends have pushed nearshore
waves down this afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Tuesday through Saturday:

Tuesday will also feature continued chances (40-50%) for
showers and storms, though weak, due largely to the upper trough
digging through the region. While there remains some
uncertainty with this upper trough and its progression from
central Canada into the western Great Lakes region the trend
points toward better chances for a day similar to Monday with
diurnal convective influence but with less certainty in regards
to location of where we should see shower/storms and how
widespread it will be. Recent trends do suggest best chances
will be further north.

By midweek it appears for at least a short period we will
finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding
in ahead of ridging aloft. Friday looks a bit more uncertain but
most models suggest a drier solution with any precip concerns
holding off until at least Saturday. The weekend looks as though
it will feature a system coming through but models disagree on
timing. However that will be something to watch as the week
progresses.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Showers and weak storms will gradually push in by around
daybreak this morning from the southwest. A 3-4 hour period of
mostly moderate showers with some thunder mixed in should be
expected this morning through the early afternoon before sliding
out. Best chance (10-20%) for any stronger storms in the early
afternoon will be in the far southeast. A dry period is expected
for a few hours in the mid to late afternoon before we see a
period of scattered showers and weak storms carry into the mid
evening. Nothing severe is expected but we cannot rule out some
small hail.

Temporarily lowered VSBYS should be expected with rain showers
with mostly MVFR VSBYS but IFR and lower will be possible with
heavier rain/storms. There will be potential for some fog as the
low pressure pulls through this evening/tonight but looks most
likely patchy and primarily further north toward central WI.

Otherwise expect lower CIGS to push in with low during mid to
late morning and enveloping the region by the late afternoon
with mostly MVFR CIGS initially but quickly becoming IFR as the
system pushes in. By the evening hours we could see LIFR CIGS
become fairly widespread. Low CIGS may remain through much of
Monday morning before VFR conditions return.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 300 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure over Lower Michigan will move east into New
England today, while low pressure lifts from Kansas into
western Illinois by this afternoon, and then to southern Lake
Michigan by late tonight. This will result in increasing
southeast to east winds across the lake for today, with showers
and thunderstorms likely at times today, largely for the
southern portion of the lake.

That low will then progress northeastward to Lake Huron by Monday
afternoon, with winds quickly turning northwesterly as the low
departs. West to northwest flow will persist into mid week, with
winds gradually weakening over time as high pressure eventually
builds into the region.

Slight chance for small craft conditions to be met this
afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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