Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
681 FXUS63 KMKX 120252 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 952 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times Wednesday night into Thursday evening, with uncertainty with timing and placement of convection lingering. - Warmer and more humid conditions for Wednesday into Thursday. - A significant warm up still looks likely for Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The short term forecast for Tonight through Wednesday remains on track at this time. For Thursday, it remains to be seen whether the southward trend in the effective cold front (source of triggering for convection) will continue to shift south of us in global and regional wx models (still waiting for the latest guidance to come in). However, the latest HRRR run shows a reversal of this trend, with weaker Wednesday night convection, higher dewpoints and southerly flow in our region Thursday, followed by stronger convection developing in our region beginning mid to late Thursday afternoon. Both scenarios remain on the table for now. Sheppard && .SHORT TERM... Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Tonight through Wednesday: A line of light rain is moving east this afternoon will continue through the area ahead of the sfc trough. Additional widely scattered rain showers and a couple rumbles of thunder will be possible through late this afternoon as the sfc trough swings through the area. The low level lift and some mid level moisture are the driving factors for these showers. Dry air in the low levels will be the inhibiting factor which will keep rain very light and any measurable precipitation low. The potential for any thunderstorms will end quickly as we approach dusk and loose are diurnal heating. For Wednesday, dry weather is expected throughout the day. Wednesday will be warm and humid with high temperatures expected to climb into the low to mid 80s. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the 60s which will make conditions feel muggy and sticky. A lake breeze is expected to move inland keep the imminent lakeshore areas cooler in the afternoon. The breezy southwest winds and strong waa expected should prevent the lake breeze from moving to far inland. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Wednesday night through Tuesday: The chance for rain and thunderstorms returns Wednesday night into Thursday. Convection should start developing along the warm front to the west in Minnesota. These showers and storms will then advance southeastward and clip southern Wisconsin during the overnight hours Wednesday. The best chance for area wide rainfall is expected during the day Thursday as a cold front advances across the state. For the overnight convection, these showers and storms are expected to be weakening as they move into the area. These storms will be moving away from the better synoptic support and into a more stable airmass. The low level jet is expected to develop and increase overnight into Thursday, but the current issues with the timing and placement of this jet lives little to be desired for southern Wisconsin. The better chances for thunderstorms overall looks to remain to our north and west. Thursday is where conditions become a bit trickier. The effective cold front will be the boundary to watch as this will be the area when convective initiation begins. Guidance has increasingly shown that the effect front will push through the area with the Wednesday night rain, which could result in a bit more widespread rain. However the trade off is that we will be on the north side of the front and therefore all the rain and storms will develop south of the state. The progression of this front overtime has continued to shift southward, so kept low chance POPS especially across far southern Wisconsin to highlight the shifting trend. Will have to keep an eye on this period to see where the storms will set up. High pressure then moves southeast into the region for Friday and to the east Saturday, bringing dry conditions and more seasonable temperatures with less humidity. Looking further ahead Sunday into Tuesday a warming trend looks to set up again. Ensembles and cluster mean forecast continue to show high confidence in this. This is further supported by the building ridge into the Great Lakes Region. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions continue overnight into Wednesday, with mostly clear skies except for a few areas of clouds around 6,000-10,000 feet AGL. Light south winds will gradually veer west overnight, then back southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon / evening, with additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Cumulonimbus cloud bases with this convection are expected to be VFR initially (generally 5,000 ft or higher) for the first round of storms late Wed afternoon / evening, with MVFR becoming more likely (and IFR possible) Wednesday night. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 South to southeast winds will continue today into Wednesday morning, as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves to the southeast of the region. Increasing southwest winds are expected Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the northwest and north behind the front Thursday night. North to northwest winds will remain Friday as high pressure around 30.2 inches moves into the region. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee