Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
343 FXUS63 KMKX 190737 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 237 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures continue into the weekend. But a return to near normal temperatures next week. - Dry conditions prevail through the day today, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and night. Additional rain chances are expected Saturday night into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Today through Friday: Another warm day expected today with mostly clear skies and 925mb temps in the 23-25 C range. This should bring temperatures to the mid to upper 80s for much of the CWA with cooler temperatures near the lake from the expected development of the lake breeze. As we move through the afternoon and especially into the evening hours we will see showers/storms pushing in the from the west as a front pushes in with some PVA aloft helping out. The midlevel moisture and WAA will be sufficient as well in allowing for the potential for storms to push into the area. There is some uncertainty on how early storms might push in but we could see NW parts of the CWA get clipped by some storms in the afternoon. However most of the potential convection is expected into the early to late evening hours. While shear will certainly be sufficient (30-40kts) for severe storms the timing of storms being more in the evening suggests we will quickly lose much of our instability in the evening hours. Thus we could expect some stronger storms to the west, perhaps even some borderline severe storms but as they slide east they will weaken as we move later into the evening. Generally CAMs suggest organized storm activity through the evening and overnight period but they do not show much in the way of stronger storms by the time they push into the western parts of the CWA. Regardless we will watch for potentially strong storms tonight. Into Friday, models suggest the storms and remaining showers will have pushed out of the CWA off to the east though still awaiting the passage of the front which is estimated to come through some time after sunrise Friday morning. The rest of the day Friday looks relatively quiet with clearing skies from the west through the day. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs only expected to reach the low to mid 80s Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Friday night through Wednesday: Quieter conditions are expected to continue Friday night through much of Saturday as another brief period of ridging pushes back in with weak high pressure over the area. While some models suggest an earlier arrival in the next system (GEFS), most models suggest that much of Saturday will remain dry with the next system not impacting the region until at least Saturday night into Sunday. This system will be fairly drawn out over the course of a few days with an upper level closed low gradually migrating east northeast from the southwest US on Saturday to the Central Plains by Sunday. However the impacts of this system will be felt further away as the closed low will feature a `wing` of PVA extending eastward toward the CWA. This, in addition to broad developing surface low pressure with some moisture available in the midlevels as well as some WAA may lead to precipitation starting as early as Saturday night with ongoing chances through at least Monday night before the surface low pulls through. Precip chances may linger into Tuesday on the backside of the low before we finally see a return to drier conditions. This system will bring us back to near average temperatures with Sunday featuring the front coming through with broadly high pressure conditions returning by Tuesday with highs the rest of the week likely to be in the low 70s. Plenty of uncertainty with precip chances beyond Tuesday. Some models suggest weak chances for the middle of next week but by the end of the week stronger high pressure should be building into the region in some form. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Some patchy ground fog again tonight especially across fields and particularly for areas closer to the lake with high moisture in the air. This fog is largely expected to remain consistent though we are watching for the development of more widespread fog this morning along the nearshore region in addition to some lower stratus development. However in largely part we expect the patchy situation to continue with otherwise VFR conditions. Into the daylight hours fog will dissipate and leave a fairly quiet and clear day with VFR conditions expected with light to modest southerly winds (afternoon easterly component closer to the lake with the lake breeze). Into the evening There will the potential for storms and perhaps stronger in western WI but overall heavy rain and thunder should be expected overnight at some point across the CWA, finishing in the east before sunrise Friday morning. The rest of Friday should be relatively quiet with VFR conditions returning. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Light winds and increasing humidity may lead to patchy fog across the northern third of the lake early this morning. High pressure over New England will gradually weaken and drift east on today, with low pressure over the Plains strengthening. This will produce south- southeast winds into Friday. A weak front will push southeastward across the open waters tonight into Friday, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday before another area of low pressure begins to push into the Great Lakes region Sunday, with winds becoming generally easterly ahead of this system. As low pressure approaches, additional shower and thunderstorm chances develop. More westerly winds are expected behind the system. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee