Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
966 FXUS63 KMKX 250851 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 351 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions prevail today through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today through Thursday night: As the departing surface low track across lower MI this morning, will see pockets of patchy fog across portions of the area mainly across the Wisconsin River Valley and low-lying areas along the WI/IL border. High pressure builds in from the west bring light winds and dry conditions today. With subsidence resulting in primarily clear condition`s through the afternoon, will see temps warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. High pressure continues to work it way over WI tonight maintaining light winds and mostly clear conditions which allow for ample radiational cooling with temps dropping into the low 50s and even a few locations dipping into the upper 40s. However, would not be surprised for a few low- lying location even get down toward the middle 40s briefly. Otherwise, the upper-level trough to our south this morning is progged to cutoff from the main flow and meander over the the Ohio River Valley/Southeast US tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile the upper- level ridge axis slides east across the Upper Midwest and will warm temps up for Thursday into the mid to upper 70s and a few locations cracking 80F is not out of the question. Similar overnight conditions are expected with lows in the 50s to upper 40s. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Friday through Tuesday: Models continue to show the upper-level ridge break down for Friday as the meandering cutoff low to our south interacts with the northward moving remnants of the tropical system Helene. The latest model trends have a bulk of the moisture and impacts from this system staying to our south-southeast with the high PWATs exceeding 1 inch only glancing far southeastern WI. Thus, precip chances remain on the lower side <30% through the weekend as this system generally skips our CWA, while another upper- level ridge/surface high sets up over the western Great Lakes for the weekend. Will see daily temps in the 70s and nightly temps into the 50s through the weekend. Extended models continue to hint at a cooler pattern change as we head into next week. The 00z deterministic are in fairly reasonable agreement of an upper-level trough digging across the Upper Midwest, which would bring additional precip chances and cooler trend into the middle of next week. However, the WPC Cluster analysis show more variability in the pattern and timing, but will monitor for the potential cool spell heading into the start of the spooky season. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 With the exception of fog development in the Wisconsin River Valley and pockets along the WI/IL border, light winds and VFR conditions prevail across southern WI early this morning. Will see high pressure build in from the west today and continue to see light winds and VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. May see some patchy fog development again Wednesday night given the lighter winds and recent moisture, but not confident to add into the latest TAFs at this time. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Low pressure continues northeast across lower MI early this morning and will track into Lake Huron and eastern Ontario through the day. Will also see patchy fog potential linger over the the northern third of the Lake on the backside of the departing low pressure. Otherwise expect lighter northwest winds around 10-15 knots across Lake Michigan today as the pressure gradient relaxes with an incoming surface high pressure building in from the west. Influence from high pressure will continue Thursday as it moves overhead. Then winds are expected to turn easterly and increase, especially across southern Lake Michigan, for Friday into the start of the weekend as the remnants from the Gulf of Mexico tropical system works its way northward. Could see small craft conditions for southern WI nearshore zones and gusts up to 30 knots in southern portions of the Lake. Will see this low meander back southeast heading into the weekend with somewhat lighter winds and influence from another surface high pressure creep back southward across Lake Michigan. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee