Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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Spot Forecast for Headwater Lake...SJRWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
455 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Considerable clouds this morning then becoming partly
to mostly sunny. Light and variable winds early will become south
then increase from the southeast behind the sea breeze late this
afternoon. Hot and humid with peak heat indices near 105 this
afternoon with low rain/storm chances.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly Sunny after morning low clouds.
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1700.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 12 mph late
                    in the morning, then increasing to around 13
                    mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the south 3
                    to 12 mph early in the morning.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 23 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 40 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 59 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 48.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  41  36  35  20  18  9   30  30  30  30  30
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............74  74  76  80  84  87  88  91  92  93  93  92
RH..............97  97  99  85  76  69  63  58  57  55  56  59
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   5   6   7   8   9   12  13
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   6   8   10  12  14  15  15  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.2 5.5 4.6
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   3   5   6   7   7   8   10  10  12
Dispersion idx..2   2   5   9   19  27  35  44  56  62  55  48
LVORI...........7   7   6   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then 9-15 strikes until
                    2000, then 1-8 strikes until 2400, then No
                    Tstms until 0200, then 1-8 strikes until 0400,
                    then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening, then gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....43 decreasing to 7 early in the evening.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........30     14     23     36     27     20
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE S CHC         S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC         S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     20     10     20     10
LAL.............2      2      2      1      2      1
Temp............89     86     82     80     78     77
RH..............64     71     79     87     91     94
20 ft wind......SE 13  SE 12  SE 10  SE 8   SE 6   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.16     15     14     12     8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   1200   500    500    400    400
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 15  SE 14  SE 12  S 9    S 8
Dispersion idx..46     10     9      5      4      4
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      7

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 47.
LVORI...............7 increasing to 9 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 6 early in the morning decreasing
                    to 4 late in the morning decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        7         34        41
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        40        40        60
LAL.............1         2         2         3
Temp............77        82        88        89
RH..............94        88        72        69
20 FT wind......SE 5G7    SE 6G8    SE 9G14   SE 12G17
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1900      3600      3800
Transport wind..S 7       SE 7      SE 8      SE 12
Dispersion idx..3         18        39        47
LVORI...........7         4         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Kelly
Requested by...Chris OHara
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416454.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cohara@sjrwmd.com