Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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Spot Forecast for Three Lakes - Big Nose...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
555 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Considerable clouds this morning then becoming partly
to mostly sunny. Light north to northwest breeze early will become south
then increase from the southeast behind the sea breeze late this
afternoon. Hot and humid with peak heat indices 102 to 105 this
afternoon. The morning should be rain-free with scattered showers and
storms possible during the mid to late afternoon. But most of the
convection looks to stay north of the burn site.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny after morning low clouds.
                    Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1300, then 9-15 strikes until 1400, then 1-8
                    strikes until 1500, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southeast 6 to 7 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west around 3
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 46.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  34  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  30  20  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   3   2   3   3   3
Temp............74  79  84  85  88  89  91  92  94  93
RH..............100 88  74  72  63  61  56  54  51  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   6   7   8   10  10  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2
Transp wind dir.N   W   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   5   5   6   7   6   6   8
Dispersion idx..6   7   11  16  21  30  38  35  37  46
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    showers early in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....52 decreasing to 5.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........38     19     28     13     48     14
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     10     10     10     0
LAL.............3      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............92     85     80     78     75     74
RH..............54     72     85     91     97     100
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 8   SE 6   SE 6   SE 3   SE 3
20 ft wind gust.12     13     12     9      8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   800    700    600    400    400
Transport wind..SE 12  SE 14  SE 12  SE 12  S 9    S 8
Dispersion idx..52     6      5      5      4      4
LVORI...........1      3      5      6      6      8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 21 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 34 late in the morning increasing
                    to 48 late in the afternoon decreasing to 38.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 7 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 4 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 1 late in the afternoon increasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........9         7         26        41
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         30        30        60
LAL.............1         2         2         3
Temp............74        80        88        90
RH..............100       94        68        64
20 FT wind......SE 3G6    SE 3G7    SE 7G12   SE 8G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1800      3900      4000
Transport wind..SE 7      SE 7      SE 8      SE 10
Dispersion idx..3         17        37        47
LVORI...........9         4         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Kelly
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416458.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com