676
FXUS64 KMOB 031048
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An uncertain yet potentially convectively active near term lies
ahead today through Tuesday. Several weak shortwaves embedded
within the northwest flow aloft are expected to transit the area
during the period. The first of these is moving through this
morning which has been responsible for an ongoing complex of
thunderstorms pushing across southeastern LA into southeastern MS.
CAMs have not handled this feature well at all, with a majority
of them not even having any convection ongoing in this area right
now. With that said, have opted to bump PoPs this morning across
far southeastern MS into southwestern AL in anticipation that this
feature transits the aforementioned area.

As we head into the rest of today, more typical afternoon pulse-type
convection can be expected by late morning into the afternoon and
early evening hours. High temperatures rise into the upper 80`s to
near 90 for most spots. As we head into tonight, the next shortwave
will begin to approach the area sometime during the overnight hours.
It seems reasonable to expect another MCS to be ongoing with this
feature as it pushes across the ArkLaTex this evening, likely
persisting into the overnight as it comes across LA/MS/AL. There is
a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of this system so it`s
difficult to get into any details on timing or intensity at this
point. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70`s for most spots.

The uncertainty continues into Tuesday as another shortwave
approaches from the west-northwest by late afternoon into early
evening. Once again, potential exists for an MCS to track across the
area, but details on timing and intensity are difficult to assess at
this time. It does appear deep layer shear will be a bit stronger
for the Tuesday system, which could bolster a better threat for
strong to severe storms. At a minimum anticipate the usual late
morning into afternoon/evening pulse type thunderstorms for the
entire forecast area. Afternoon highs once again top out in the
upper 80`s to near 90. A Moderate risk of rip currents today drops
to a low risk for tonight into Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Northwesterly to occasionally westerly flow aloft persists into
early next week as a ridge generally remains to our west with a
trough digging across the eastern portion of the CONUS. Subtle
shortwaves cruise through the flow aloft, but timing out these
individual features is tough at this time range. One of the more
notable shortwaves early in the period will likely pivot into the
region overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. Meanwhile, a surface
high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip on the region and
eastern Gulf through Thursday. A front drifts south toward the area
late in the work week, likely sliding across the area through the
day on Friday. Moisture will continue to pump into the area ahead of
this front as we maintain onshore flow at the surface through
Thursday night. Wednesday and Thursday have the potential to be wet
at times with a chance for showers and storms throughout much of
that timeframe. Highest rain chances on Friday will likely be in the
afternoon hours as the front makes it near the coast during peak
heating. Some of the guidance is indicating abnormally dry air
diving into the region in the wake of the front with PWATs falling
to almost a half inch briefly during the day on Saturday. The dry
air will be short-lived as more subtle shortwaves move overhead late
in the weekend and early next week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms re-enter the forecast on Sunday and Monday afternoons.

When it isn`t raining, it`ll be toasty with highs topping out in the
upper 80s to low 90s most afternoons. On days that remain clear with
no showers/storms, expect highs to soar a few degrees warmer. Heat
indices will hit the century mark in a few spots each day.

Beach Note: Rip current risk is LOW through the end of the work week
with the RCMOS probabilities indicating the LOW risk persisting
through at least next weekend. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week as a
light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts westerly
late in the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  72  89  73  89  73  90  71 /  40  10  30  10  30  20  40  20
Pensacola   87  76  88  75  87  76  88  74 /  40  10  30  10  30  30  50  20
Destin      84  77  85  76  87  76  88  76 /  40  10  30  10  30  30  50  20
Evergreen   89  70  90  68  91  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  10  40  40  60  20
Waynesboro  90  70  90  70  92  70  90  68 /  50  30  40  10  40  40  40  20
Camden      89  70  90  69  90  69  88  68 /  40  30  40  10  40  40  50  20
Crestview   90  69  90  68  91  70  91  69 /  50  10  30   0  30  20  60  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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