825
FXUS64 KMOB 142103
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley
progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East
Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently
located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to
near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold
front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence oriented
roughly along the I-65 corridor will combine with the frontal
boundary to produce isolated to potentially scattered convective
development during the remainder of the afternoon, with the best
potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The convection diminishes
this evening with dry conditions then following for the overnight
hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE values for the rest of this
afternoon into the early evening hours look to be mostly 1500-2500
J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values near 45 knots could
allow for a few storms to possibly become severe. The best potential
for this to occur is over much of southwest and south central
Alabama, including the western Florida panhandle, where a Marginal
Risk of severe storms exists. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s
inland to near 70 at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
mid to upper 80s, then lows Wednesday night range from around 60
well inland to the upper 60s at the immediate coast. A high risk of
rip currents continues through Wednesday, then a moderate risk
follows for Wednesday night. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The pattern will become active again after a brief break on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. An elongated mid and upper level
low pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific to the
west of southern California will be our next system to potentially
bring high impact weather along the northern Gulf Coast. This
feature is expected to quickly translate eastward across the
southern tier of the U.S. over the next few days and be located
over the Southern Plains by Friday. This is supported by the
latest ensemble model suites. Much of the model guidance is also
suggesting that a lead southern stream shortwave should eject
across our forecast area out ahead of the main approaching
mid/upper level trough. As this occurs, there is a fairly robust
signal in the ensemble probabilistic guidance that there will be
a surge of deep tropical moisture northward across the north
central Gulf Coast associated with a lifting warm front with the
air mass destabilizing rapidly along and south of the front by
Thursday night. In addition, the lifting warm front should be
aided by a strengthening low level jet which should be spreading
across the warm front. As low level winds become enhanced in
association with the lead shortwave which interacts with
increasing instability, storms are expected to form initially
along and north of the boundary. A few of these storms may become
severe but should be initially elevated in nature. With time
towards Friday morning, storms may become increasingly surface
based. This would only help to increase the overall severe weather
potential into Friday morning.

There may tend to be a break in convective activity later Friday
before the primary forcing associated with the main mid/upper
level trough overspreads the region Friday night into Saturday
morning. This should support another round of storms, some
potentially severe, during this time period. There will be some
uncertainty with respect to the overall instability available for
newly developing convection overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will hinge on mesoscale processes associated with
the Thursday night into Friday morning convection. The question,
as was the case with our latest past event, is whether the first
round of storms will disrupt the instability that will be
available for the Friday night into Saturday morning convective
system. These details will not be known until we get closer to the
event and begin to see the eventual evolution of storms associated
with the lead shortwave. Either way, conditions appear to be
increasingly favorable for some severe weather potential during
the end of this week with details to still be worked out over the
coming forecast cycles.

Storm coverage may continue into Saturday as the upper trough
remain over the area and a potential boundary drapes across the
area. This again will be dependent upon the evolution of the
convection Friday night into Saturday morning and whether or not
the air mass can recover. Another reinforcing northern stream
shortwave trough digs into the region on Sunday and pushes a cold
front across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop in association with the cold frontal passage on Sunday.

Upper level ridging should become re-established across the Gulf
Coast states by early next week and bring a return to dry weather
along with increasingly hot temperatures. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will have a Small Craft Advisory continue until 5 pm for the 20-60
nm portion to allow for southwesterly winds to subside a bit more.
No concerns are otherwise expected through Thursday night. An
onshore flow gradually strengthens Friday into Friday night then
diminishes Saturday into Saturday night and becomes west to
northwest. Another Small Craft Advisory will likely become
necessary from late Friday night into Saturday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  88  64  87  69  85  71  86 /  10   0   0  10  40  70  40  40
Pensacola   70  87  67  86  73  84  74  84 /  20   0   0  10  30  60  50  50
Destin      72  85  70  84  74  83  75  83 /  20   0   0  10  20  60  50  50
Evergreen   63  87  61  89  66  85  67  85 /  20   0   0   0  40  80  60  50
Waynesboro  61  86  61  88  65  82  66  85 /  10   0   0  10  50  80  40  40
Camden      62  85  60  87  66  81  66  83 /  20   0   0   0  50  80  60  40
Crestview   65  88  62  90  66  87  70  86 /  20   0   0   0  20  70  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ670-
     675.

&&

$$

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