978
FXUS64 KMOB 242301
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
601 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A few showers or storms are possible early this evening over much
of the area and near the coast in the early morning hours. Isolated
to possibly scattered showers and storms are anticipated to
develop on Tuesday over much of the area. MVFR conditions are
possible with the convection, but otherwise VFR conditions prevail
through Tuesday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight through Tuesday, guidance is advertising moisture levels
dropping as northerly flow on the west side of the East Coast
upper trough re-asserts itself, with precipitable H20 levels of
1.5"-1.7" along and south of a Waynesboro to Crestview line, 1.0"
to 1.5" north. Guidance is also advertising the upper ridge
building a bit. An increase in temperatures from increased
subsidence Tuesday (high temperatures in the 95-100F range well
inland from the coast, 90-95 closer to and along the coast) is
expected. Even with the drop in moisture levels, Heat Indices for
Tuesday will see an uptick, especially along and south of a Butler
to Florala line (107-112F), with 100-107F expected further north.
Have added an extra layer in inland counties, Choctaw, Clarke,
Monroe, Conecuh, and Covington to the current Heat Advisory for
tomorrow with this package. Also, with the better moisture levels
closer to the coast, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again possible in the afternoon over and south
of a Waynesboro to Opp line, with an inland moving seabreeze of
the Gulf the initiator. South of the coast, overnight/morning
showers and thunderstorms remain possible, so have left isolated
to scattered convection in the forecast. Low temperatures tonight
will generally be in the low to mid 70s for most areas, upper 70s
and even some lower 80s near the coast. /16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday as a longwave
upper trough strengthens over the eastern US and as a few embedded
shortwaves slide within a mean northwest flow over the Southeastern
States. This upper support will combine with a nearly stationary frontal
boundary that will be dissipating over the interior southeast States
as well. While rain chances will be increasing both days
(generally around 60 percent), chances for severe storms will
continue to be limited (although a strong storm or two will be
possible each afternoon during the times of peak instability).
Plenty of deep layer moisture is expected to be in place across
the area with PWATs reaching to around 1.8-2.0 inches and even up
to around 2.3 inches at times, so some locally heavy rain will be
possible at times as well. It will continue to be hot (it is late
June after all) but temperatures will be tempered somewhat as we
head into the middle of this week due to the increased
precipitation coverage and associated cloudiness. Ambient
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be a couple degrees
lower than what we saw earlier in the week with high temperatures
are forecast to top out in the middle 90s Wednesday and low to mid
90s on Thursday, with heat index values generally reaching up to
around 105 degrees. With this, we will not likely be issuing any
heat products for those two days. As we head into Friday,
subtropical ridging begins to build back into the Southeastern US.
This ridging is expected remain overhead through the weekend and
will bring increasing subsidence to the area. With the rising
heights and drier air aloft, temperatures will warm back into the
middle 90s and perhaps even the upper 90s each afternoon. Moisture
at the surface will remain abundant with light southerly flow
persisting through the weekend. This moisture combined with the
hot ambient temperatures may result in heat indices approaching
Heat Advisory criteria again this weekend. Daily chances for
showers and storms will also continue into the weekend, but
coverage is expected to become more isolated and scattered in
nature as the ridging builds overhead. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as a light to occasionally moderate
southwesterly to westerly flow is expected throughout the week.
Winds and seas will occasionally be higher near showers and
thunderstorms. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  96  77  94  75  92  75  92 /  20  30  10  50  40  60  30  40
Pensacola   78  95  80  94  78  92  78  91 /  20  30  20  50  40  60  30  50
Destin      80  93  81  91  79  91  80  91 /  20  30  20  50  40  60  30  40
Evergreen   71  99  72  97  71  93  73  95 /  10  20  10  50  30  60  20  40
Waynesboro  73 100  75  96  71  92  73  95 /  10  20  10  60  30  50  10  30
Camden      71  98  72  96  71  92  73  94 /   0  10   0  40  30  50  10  30
Crestview   73 100  73  97  73  96  73  95 /  20  30  10  50  30  60  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>053-055-
     056-059-060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ052-059-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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