524
FXUS64 KMOB 232306
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected during the period with the exception
of MVFR conditions with isolated to scattered showers and storms
which occur mainly during Monday along a weak surface trof which
moves slowly southward through much of the area. A light
southwesterly flow prevails tonight then becomes northwesterly 5
to 10 knots in the wake of the surface trof. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

It`s certainly toasty out there today with hotter and more humid
conditions expected early in the work week. Dewpoints have mixed out
again this afternoon, but not quite as drastically as we`ve seen
over the past 2 days. As a result, heat indices are peaking around
101-107 across our southernmost counties. We`ll see a little relief
(but not by much) as the sea breeze continues to march inland across
the coastal counties this afternoon. Isolated convection is possible
along the sea breeze across parts of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa
Counties over the next 2-3 hours, but the rest of the area will
remain rain-free this afternoon and evening.

Heat and the potential for storms will be the main story for Monday.
The local area remains on the eastern side of an elongated ridge
aloft as a trough swings across the East Coast tomorrow. A surface
high over the western Atlantic maintains its grip over much of the
area through at least Monday morning as a surface trough slips south
into parts of the Deep South. This surface feature may hit a wall at
some point tomorrow afternoon given the surface ridge that is still
nosing into the southern portion of our area. Fully expect some
convection to be sparked across our northernmost counties through
mid-morning on Monday before fizzling for a few hours. Expect
another round of convection as the sea breeze ramps up throughout
the afternoon, especially across our southernmost counties. While
there`s not as much dry air aloft tomorrow afternoon, there will be
ample instability for convection to tap into, so we can`t rule out a
few strong storms in the afternoon.

Given that there will be less dry air to mix down during the
afternoon tomorrow, dewpoints will be a few degrees higher and heat
indices will subsequently also be higher across a good chunk of the
area. Counties across the southern portion of our area have the best
potential of hitting Heat Advisory criteria (108+) on Monday before
the storms ramp up in the afternoon hours. Further inland, we have
low confidence in meeting advisory criteria given the potential for
morning convection, cloud cover, and slightly drier air associated
with the surface trough (especially south-central Alabama) by the
afternoon hours. Note that the counties in the current Heat Advisory
may need to be adjusted or tweaked as the latest guidance and
observations come in tonight and overnight.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through
Monday. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Beginning Monday night the expansive upper level ridging that has
been over the area slowly retrogrades westward and an upper trough
deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. The aforementioned upper level
ridging becomes centered over the Desert Southwest by Tuesday and
continues there through at least early Friday while broad upper
troughing lingers over much of the eastern US. This pattern will
result in a more active and wetter weather pattern for our area
through much of the upcoming week. The upper troughing over the east
actually sharpens somewhat Wednesday and Thursday as a series of
shortwaves move west to east through the upper flow. At the surface,
a weak "cold" front is expected to sag southward into the Tennessee
Valley and northern portions of Georgia and Alabama Monday night
into Tuesday, before becoming nearly stationary across that region
for the remainder of the week.

Guidance continues to indicate a plume of enhanced moisture south of
the frontal boundary that will be in place across our area though
most of the week, with PWAT`s at least in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range
through most of the week, possibly even up as high as 2.2 inches
by the weekend. With this available moisture expect at least
scattered showers and storms each day this week, mainly in a
diurnal afternoon and early evening pattern. Highest PoPs look to
be Wednesday and Thursday afternoons (generally around 60 percent
range) coinciding with the additional upper support of the
shortwaves noted earlier. Even with the potential for highest
PWAT`s over the weekend, upper ridging will be building back over
the region by that time, so rain chances will tick back to the
chance category (about 40 to 50 percent) each day. A few strong
storms could be possible each day, but organized severe weather is
not anticipated.

The biggest concern will be the very hot temperatures, which will
continue to climb well into the 90s each afternoon through the
period. The hottest date still looks to be Tuesday, when mid to
upper 90s will likely be widespread for all areas except the
immediate coast, with a few interior locations even reaching the
century mark. We will likely need a Heat Advisory for parts, or
most, of the area again on Tuesday, as heat indices of 108 or
greater are possible, especially near the coast where dewpoints
will be higher. Slightly cooler on Wednesday and Thursday with
more widespread clouds and precipitation, but highs still likely
climbing into the middle 90s for many locations, with heat indices
up to around 105 possible. Back to at least mid and maybe some
upper 90s Friday through Sunday as upper ridging builds back and
rain chances decrease slightly. DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms this week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  75  96  76  94  75  93 /   0  40  10  40  10  60  40  60
Pensacola   78  94  78  94  79  94  78  93 /   0  40  20  40  20  50  40  70
Destin      79  91  80  92  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  20  40  20  50  40  60
Evergreen   73  96  73  98  72  95  71  94 /  10  40  10  40  10  60  30  60
Waynesboro  75  96  74 100  74  96  72  94 /  10  40  10  40  20  60  40  60
Camden      75  96  73  97  72  96  72  93 /  20  30  10  30  10  60  30  50
Crestview   73  98  73  98  74  96  72  95 /   0  50  10  40  10  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ052-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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