Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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915 FXUS64 KMOB 190111 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 811 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper trof over the eastern states begins to move off into the western Atlantic Thursday night while an upper ridge which extends from the south central states to the Great Lakes region inches eastward and strengthens a bit. A weak and diffuse surface trof over the coastal counties may allow for some spotty showers and storms to develop this afternoon. Dry conditions are otherwise expected through Thursday night as drier air currently filtering into interior portions of the area continues into the remainder of the area. Lows tonight and Thursday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be around 90. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Thursday night. /29 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper ridge which extends from the south central states to the Great Lakes region gradually builds into the area through Sunday as an upper trof just off the east coast moves well off into the western Atlantic. A surface ridge over the eastern states gradually becomes oriented over the northern Gulf coast states through Sunday, and surface winds over the forecast area gradually trend from northerly to easterly, with a weak sea breeze circulation developing near the coast each afternoon. While there is some gradual improvement in deep layer moisture over the area through this weekend, subsidence associated with the upper ridge will likely preclude convective development and have continued with a dry forecast. An upper trof will advance across the southern/central Plains on Sunday followed by a longwave trof evolving over the central states by Tuesday, with the upper ridge over the forecast region meanwhile being deflected eastward. There is uncertainty past this point as to whether or not the large upper trof remains over the central states or advances into the eastern states, and there is also the potential for a "low pressure system" to be present somewhere in the Gulf on Wednesday. At this point, it looks that rain chances remain sufficiently low enough through Tuesday to keep mention of precip out of the forecast, then slight chance pops return to the entire area by Wednesday. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s, then highs will be around 90 on Sunday and Monday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, and mostly in the mid 80s on Wednesday. Lows typically range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated through this weekend. /29 MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 No impacts are anticipated through Monday, with little (if any) convective activity. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 91 68 92 70 91 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 90 73 90 73 89 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 89 74 90 74 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 66 92 66 92 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 66 90 65 91 66 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 65 89 67 90 66 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 68 91 68 92 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob