502
FXUS64 KMOB 202052
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions will persist through the forecast period as upper
troughing pushes off the east coast and high pressure builds in. A
rather stout upper trough extending from the Florida Peninsula
northeast across the eastern seaboard will continue to lift
northeast into the Atlantic. In its place, high pressure over
central Texas will continue to nose into the deep south brining
dry northerly flow across the area. At the surface a front has
pushed deep into the central Gulf. All this will lead dry
seasonable conditions across the area. With deep dry air in place,
the only real adjustments made were to lower afternoon dewpoints
and bump high temperatures up a degree or two as deep vertical
mixing seems likely. Rain chances will remain near zero for the
time being. BB/03


SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry and warm conditions will likely continue through Tuesday as
the upper ridge slowly pushes eastward across the deep south.
Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower
moisture values (PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches) should keep
rain out of the forecast through, at least, Tuesday. The pattern
begins to chance Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next upper
trough digs into the central US allowing for southwesterly
moisture return to surge northward into the area. While rain
chances will likely increase with the presence of better moisture
midweek our attention will likely be more focused on areas of the
southern Gulf and western Caribbean.


Sometime mid to late next week a low pressure system will attempt
to form over the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf in association
with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG). There still
remains a lot of questions with regards to the overall upper-level
pattern by this time and the evolution of the trough in the
central US. Along with the questions in steering we also have
questions on where this system actually decides to develop within
the large Gyre. If a low is able to pinch off from the CAG, where
exactly does it form? And lastly, what will be it`s trajectory?
Will the ridge linger over our area long enough to push it west,
will it feel the pull of the cutoff upper low to its northwest (if
one does develop), or will the main trough be strong enough to
pull this area northeast? Unfortunately, at this time, we do not
know the answers to these questions. With the pattern being so
complex and fickle, run-to- run and model-vs- model variability
remains very high this far out. We will continue to monitor trends
closely and will provide updates to the forecast once answers
become more clear. We strongly urge residents and visitors across
the entire Gulf Coast to continue to monitor the forecast over the
coming days. BB/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A light, mostly offshore flow is expected into the early part of
the weekend, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to
develop late in the weekend and continue into the early part of
next week. Little change in seas is expected through the weekend
and into the early part of next week. No expected hazards to small
craft through the weekend and into the early part of next week,
but winds and seas will likely be increasing by midweek and
especially into late week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft
as an area of low pressure (possibly tropical in nature) develops
over the southern Gulf. BB/03



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  93  70  92  71  90  70  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   74  90  73  90  74  89  75  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      76  89  75  89  74  88  75  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   69  94  67  94  68  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  69  94  68  93  69  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      69  94  68  93  69  92  69  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   69  94  68  94  68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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