895
FXUS64 KMOB 080525
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light winds and mostly clear skies. /73

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A broad upper ridge over the south central states and 4-Corners
region shifts eastward to become centered mostly over the northern
Gulf states and much of the Gulf. A weak frontal boundary is
currently located near or just south of the coast currently, and
an old outflow boundary is seen in the current satellite loop from
near the mouth of the Mississippi to near Apalachicola. The
potential for convective development along the weak frontal
boundary looks increasingly dubious before the boundary progresses
offshore and have opted to remove the current slight chance pops
for the coastal counties this afternoon. Dry conditions follow for
tonight and Saturday as the upper ridge builds into the region
along with progressively drier air, precluding the potential for
convective development. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s well
inland to around 70/lower 70s at the immediate coast. A low risk
of rip currents is expected through Saturday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

An upper ridge over much of the Gulf and the Gulf coast states
weakens and is deflected well away from the region through Monday as
a large upper trof evolves over the eastern states. A surface low
well off to the north brings a weak cold front through much of the
forecast area on Monday, stalling near the coast in the afternoon
before moving into the marine area Monday night. Deep layer
moisture remains sufficiently limited to continue with a dry
forecast through Sunday night. Deep layer moisture improves on
Monday, and with the frontal boundary moving into the area have
gone with chance pops for the entire area for both Monday and
Monday evening. MLCAPE values on Monday look to be typically
around 1500 J/kg with very low shear values, so at this point am
anticipating general thunderstorm development. Lows Saturday
night range from the mid to upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s
at the coast, then Sunday night will see lows mostly in the lower
to mid 70s for the entire area. Lows Monday night typically range
from the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s at the coast. Highs
on Sunday will be in the mid 90s except for lower 90s at the
coast. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. A low risk
of rip currents is anticipated through the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A large upper trof oriented over the East Coast states moves off
into the western Atlantic early in the period, and a well defined
shortwave trof over the central/southern Plains meanwhile evolves
into a broad upper low while moving into the north central Gulf
coastal region through Thursday. The weak frontal boundary which
moved into the marine area Monday night looks to return to the
coastal area on Tuesday before dissipating. It`s not clear what
is going to develop with the broad upper low moving into the
region, especially later on when it becomes centered mainly over
the Gulf on Friday. Copious amounts of deep layer moisture flow
into the forecast region beginning on Wednesday and remain in
place through Friday, and overall this will be an unsettled
pattern for which the details are scarce at this point. As far as
rain chances, have gone with chance to likely pops for Tuesday
through Thursday, then chance pops follow for Friday (limited
solely by uncertainty). Will continue to monitor this interesting
portion of the forecast. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No impacts are currently expected through Wednesday other than
higher winds and seas near storms and a trend towards building
seas on Wednesday. A light northerly flow develops tonight then
becomes southerly on Saturday. A primarily southwesterly flow
follows for Sunday through Monday with a southerly flow prevailing
for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  94  74  93  73  89  72  87 /   0   0   0  30  30  50  40  60
Pensacola   74  93  76  92  76  89  75  86 /   0   0  10  30  40  60  50  60
Destin      76  90  78  89  79  88  76  85 /   0   0  10  30  40  60  50  60
Evergreen   66  96  71  94  70  91  70  88 /   0   0   0  40  30  50  30  60
Waynesboro  68  95  72  93  69  89  68  88 /   0   0  10  40  30  50  30  50
Camden      66  95  71  92  68  89  69  87 /   0   0  10  30  30  40  30  50
Crestview   66  96  71  96  71  93  71  88 /   0   0   0  30  30  60  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob