907
FXUS64 KMOB 292353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A gradual lower of high level clouds from 17000 feet to 12000 feet
will occur over the next 24 hours. Lower clouds should only be
scattered in nature, at best, over most locations. However, broken
MVFR cigs and brief periods of IFR vsbys are expected over SE MS
this evening in and around the ongoing convection, and well north
of U.S. Highway Thursday morning in and around the ongoing
convection. Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight,
followed by northeast to east winds at 5 to 10 knots on Thursday,
shifting to southeast along the coast in the afternoon. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A broad upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with an
amplified ridge over the Plains and another trough over the
Pacific NW. This will maintain a nearly zonal or slight west-
northwest flow aloft over our area. At the surface, a weak
boundary has moved offshore and is over the Gulf of Mexico to our
south. This boundary will remain nearly stationary and gradually
become more diffuse through Thursday. Surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes region will continue to ridge south
to the Gulf coast, with a weak reinforcing frontal boundary
dropping south to the coast by late Thursday. This boundary, and a
series of occasional shortwaves moving around the base of the
upper trough could provide the focus for some isolated convection
across our area, especially interior counties, just as occurred
today. Today`s isolated convection has primarily been diurnally
driven so any lingering storms this evening will quickly diminish
after sunset. Same for Thursday, with any isolated convection that
may form during the day again quickly diminishing after sunset
Thursday evening. Low temperatures tonight should range from the
mid to upper 60s across interior counties and in the low to mid
70s closer to and along the coast. The heat continues on Thursday
with near normal to slightly above normal temperatures expected,
as highs will range from the lower 80s up along the Highway 84
corridor (which will be behind reinforcing front), to the upper
80s and lower 90s southward down to near the I- 10 corridor. A
little cooler again down along the beaches (mid to upper 90s),
where moderation from the onshore flow will be most effective.
DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Ridging aloft moves overhead Friday as a trough remains draped
down the East Coast. A surface high settles into the Great Lakes
region late in the work week and surface winds gradually take on
more of a southerly component. Isolated showers and storms are
possible Friday afternoon into the early evening hours as moisture
slowly begins to rebound and a subtle shortwave nudges toward the
area. As we roll into the weekend, the trough aloft digs into the
western Atlantic as the ridge slides east of the area. Several
rounds of weak shortwaves cruise through the generally zonal flow
left in the wake of the ridge this weekend (lingering into
Monday). The surface high builds into the East Coast on Saturday
and builds over the western Atlantic as we head into Sunday.
Increasing onshore flow in the lower levels will usher more
moisture into the area, allowing dewpoints to surge into the 70s
each day. Coverage of showers and storms is expected to be higher
each afternoon over the weekend and potentially on Monday given
daytime heating, weak forcing from the shortwaves cruising
overhead, and a weak surface boundary wobbling around near the
coast. The highest coverage on both Saturday and Sunday will be
across southeast Mississippi as the surface boundary likely pushes
inland in that region, providing a focus for storms in the
afternoon. The exact timing of the showers and storms still
remains a bit uncertain given that it hinges on the placement and
timing of the subtle shortwaves moving into the region. We remain
in somewhat of an active pattern through the middle of next week
with isolated showers and storms possible each afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW Thursday through Friday
night with a bump to MODERATE on Saturday and Sunday. RCMOS
probabilities indicate the risk will likely remain MODERATE
through at least Tuesday of next week. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A light diurnal wind flow, offshore at night and onshore during
the afternoon, will continue into Thursday morning, but flow
become more predominately east to southeasterly Friday through
Sunday and then more southerly by early next week. Expect a return
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the marine area by the
weekend. No significant hazards to small craft are expected
through the weekend. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  90  70  89  72  87  71  86 /  20  20  10  10  10  50  30  50
Pensacola   74  88  72  88  74  86  74  85 /  10  10   0  10  10  40  30  40
Destin      74  88  73  88  75  85  74  85 /  10  10   0  10  10  30  30  40
Evergreen   66  87  65  90  66  89  67  87 /  10  20  10  10  10  40  30  50
Waynesboro  68  87  66  90  68  88  68  85 /  20  30  10  20  10  50  40  50
Camden      67  82  65  88  67  87  67  85 /  10  20  10  10  10  50  40  50
Crestview   66  90  65  92  67  89  67  88 /  10  10   0  10  10  40  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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