Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 270456 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

06Z issuance...VFR conditions will largely prevail through the
period. The next chance of convective activity will not occur
until Monday afternoon, mainly over inland portions of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Lower ceilings and visibilities
along with gust winds are possible in and around these showers
and storms. Light and variable winds will occur through the
period, except becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 knots near the coast
Monday afternoon. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 956 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...With the evening convection
dissipated due to the loss of surface heating, updated the public
products to remove any mention of precipitation for the remainder
of the night. With the high level cloud cover expected to linger
through much of the night, lows temperatures tonight remain on
track to only cool into the lower to mid 70s inland, with upper
70s at the beaches. A weak flattened upper ridge over the southern
CONUS will continue to retreat westward in response to a broad
upper trough moving passing over the Great lakes and Ohio River
regions. An associated weak surface boundary will move into the
region from the northwest during the afternoon hours on Monday.
Increased moisture and lift along this boundary combined with peak
heating will support numerous showers and storms mainly along and
west of Interstate 65. This boundary will gradually make its way
towards the coast through the afternoon and evening hours with
convection gradually decreasing in coverage as it moves south.
While instability and low level lapse rates generally look meager,
can`t rule out a strong storm or two with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. Lows Monday night will be slightly
cooler north of the boundary, with temperatures ranging from 69 to
73 inland, with mid 70s at the coast.

Meanwhile, a shortwave will approach the region and along the
base of the upper trough Monday night and Tuesday, with the axis
stalling over the lower Mississippi River by late Tuesday
afternoon. This will allow mainly isolated showers and storms
over the Gulf Monday night to expand northward through Tuesday
afternoon. With the deep moisture remaining, added lift along the
meandering boundary, combined with peak heating (low to mid 90s)
will once again support high-end scattered to numerous showers and
storms across the forecast area. With the the added potential for
wet microbursts based on elevated DCAPE values and model
soundings, a strong storm or two with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall remain likely. High temperatures
Tuesday will be warm, but only range from 88 to 93 degrees due to
increased rain chances. /22




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