005
FXUS64 KMOB 242120
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
420 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Tonight through Wednesday Night...

The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north
central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into
midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low
pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east
coast. The atmosphere will be largely suppressed tonight through
much of Wednesday as large-scale subsidence dominates the region.
However, at some point late Wednesday afternoon when high temps
reach maximum values of 95 to 100 degrees (about 6 to 10 degrees
above normal) we expect the capping inversion (roughly around 700mb)
to be broken. At that time, the atmosphere will have had all day to
heat up and essentially become a power keg, with MLCAPE values
reaching as high as 4000 to 5000 J/kg. There should be enough mixing
of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70
degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below
108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria.

We are anticipating two waves of storms to pass through the forecast
area, with the first complex of thunderstorms occurring in the late
afternoon through mid-evening, followed by a second complex of
storms after midnight. Only this time, these waves will be moving
from east to west as we are now firming in the easterlies. Damaging
surface winds from localized microbursts will be the main threat as
DCAPE values could be as high as 1200 J/kg. Large hail up to around
2 inches in diameter (cue ball size) will also be a threat with
mid-level lapse rates reach as high as 7.2 C/km. Frequent
lightning and heavy bouts of rain are likely as well. A LOW risk
of rip currents remains in place through midweek. /22

Thursday through Tuesday...

The diurnal cycle of summer convection continues Thursday through
Tuesday as an upper low/trof axis eases into and remains over
southeast U.S maintaining a steady flow of impulses aloft to aid in
upper support for storms. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
are expected each day with the highest coverage during the afternoon
carrying over into the evening hours. The thunderstorm mode is
favored to be pulse type each afternoon into the early evening with
complex convective initiation processes driven by intersections and
motions of outflow boundaries via the mesoscale.Forecasters can`t
rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms during time of
peak heating and highest environmental instability. Main impacts in
any higher intensity storms will be strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning, locally heavy rain, and perhaps small hail.

Thursday`s highs range 92 to 96 and will be 2 to 6 degrees above
normal. Considering the degree of expected convective coverage, high
temps are favored to be tempered somewhat thereafter, ranging from
the upper 80s/lower 90s Friday through Tuesday which will actually
be closer to normal for late June. Low temperatures range in the
lower/mid 70s interior and the mid/upper 70s along the beaches and
barrier islands. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through
the weekend. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the period outside of very
isolated showers and storms this afternoon into early evening
where brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities will occur.
/22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected as a
light onshore this evening becomes a light offshore flow late each
night and morning through midweek, and then switching back to a
light onshore flow in the afternoon and evening. A light southerly
to southwesterly flow will follow Thursday afternoon through the
upcoming weekend. /22
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  97  73  95  73  90  73  91 /  10  30  50  50  50  60  30  70
Pensacola   77  97  75  94  76  89  76  91 /  10  40  50  50  50  70  30  70
Destin      80  96  78  92  78  91  79  91 /  20  40  50  60  60  70  40  70
Evergreen   72  98  70  94  71  93  71  92 /  20  40  50  60  40  60  30  70
Waynesboro  72  97  72  96  71  92  70  93 /  20  30  40  40  30  50  20  60
Camden      73  96  72  94  72  91  71  91 /  10  30  50  50  40  50  20  60
Crestview   73  98  71  94  72  92  71  92 /  20  40  50  70  50  80  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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