


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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005 FXUS64 KMOB 242120 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 420 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Tonight through Wednesday Night... The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east coast. The atmosphere will be largely suppressed tonight through much of Wednesday as large-scale subsidence dominates the region. However, at some point late Wednesday afternoon when high temps reach maximum values of 95 to 100 degrees (about 6 to 10 degrees above normal) we expect the capping inversion (roughly around 700mb) to be broken. At that time, the atmosphere will have had all day to heat up and essentially become a power keg, with MLCAPE values reaching as high as 4000 to 5000 J/kg. There should be enough mixing of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70 degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below 108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria. We are anticipating two waves of storms to pass through the forecast area, with the first complex of thunderstorms occurring in the late afternoon through mid-evening, followed by a second complex of storms after midnight. Only this time, these waves will be moving from east to west as we are now firming in the easterlies. Damaging surface winds from localized microbursts will be the main threat as DCAPE values could be as high as 1200 J/kg. Large hail up to around 2 inches in diameter (cue ball size) will also be a threat with mid-level lapse rates reach as high as 7.2 C/km. Frequent lightning and heavy bouts of rain are likely as well. A LOW risk of rip currents remains in place through midweek. /22 Thursday through Tuesday... The diurnal cycle of summer convection continues Thursday through Tuesday as an upper low/trof axis eases into and remains over southeast U.S maintaining a steady flow of impulses aloft to aid in upper support for storms. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day with the highest coverage during the afternoon carrying over into the evening hours. The thunderstorm mode is favored to be pulse type each afternoon into the early evening with complex convective initiation processes driven by intersections and motions of outflow boundaries via the mesoscale.Forecasters can`t rule out a few strong to marginally severe storms during time of peak heating and highest environmental instability. Main impacts in any higher intensity storms will be strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and perhaps small hail. Thursday`s highs range 92 to 96 and will be 2 to 6 degrees above normal. Considering the degree of expected convective coverage, high temps are favored to be tempered somewhat thereafter, ranging from the upper 80s/lower 90s Friday through Tuesday which will actually be closer to normal for late June. Low temperatures range in the lower/mid 70s interior and the mid/upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through the weekend. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the period outside of very isolated showers and storms this afternoon into early evening where brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities will occur. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 409 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 No significant impacts to small craft are expected as a light onshore this evening becomes a light offshore flow late each night and morning through midweek, and then switching back to a light onshore flow in the afternoon and evening. A light southerly to southwesterly flow will follow Thursday afternoon through the upcoming weekend. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 97 73 95 73 90 73 91 / 10 30 50 50 50 60 30 70 Pensacola 77 97 75 94 76 89 76 91 / 10 40 50 50 50 70 30 70 Destin 80 96 78 92 78 91 79 91 / 20 40 50 60 60 70 40 70 Evergreen 72 98 70 94 71 93 71 92 / 20 40 50 60 40 60 30 70 Waynesboro 72 97 72 96 71 92 70 93 / 20 30 40 40 30 50 20 60 Camden 73 96 72 94 72 91 71 91 / 10 30 50 50 40 50 20 60 Crestview 73 98 71 94 72 92 71 92 / 20 40 50 70 50 80 30 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob