Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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853 AWUS01 KWNH 261451 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262050- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1051 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...much of Indiana, western Ohio, and far eastern Illinois Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261450Z - 262050Z Summary...A band of gradually intensifying convection across eastern Illinois and southwestern Indiana will produce areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates at times. At least a few instances of flash flooding are possible as these storms move eastward toward Ohio through mid-afternoon (20Z or so). Discussion...An ongoing band of storms (currently along an axis from IKK/Kankakee, IL southward to LWV/Vicennes, IL) was moving slowly eastward this morning, with individual cells within that band exhibiting a more northward trajectory. The cells were gradually intensifying, and were in a destabilizing environment, with southerly flow aiding in northward advancement of 60s/low 70s F dewpoints across southern Indiana. 1-1.5 inch PW values and areas of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg were also assisting in storm intensification, and MRMS recently estimated rain rates of around 1-1.25 inch/hr near the more robust convective cells. The ongoing scenario should translate slowly eastward through the day, with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates continuing to translate eastward across southern/central Indiana into southwestern Ohio through 20Z. Recent convective trends indicate rainfall spreading into the central Indiana region between 1530-17Z. Additionally, models suggest continued warm/moist advection ahead of the band into portions of central Indiana/western Ohio that should aid in maintaining convective intensity and heavy rainfall risk through the afternoon. Flash flooding is possible given widespread areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds across the region that should be exceeded on a localized basis. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...PAH... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41378531 41168397 39988343 38848374 38058585 38038726 38728770 40558792 41198758