084
AWUS01 KWNH 152140
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Arizona through central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151937Z - 160137Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists as scattered
thunderstorm activity drifts northward across the discussion area
this afternoon.

Discussion...Abundant insolation has enabled a gradual deepening
of scattered convection across much of eastern Arizona and central
New Mexico.  The storms are developing in areas of 500-1500 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 0.8-1.4 inch PW values - highest across southern
Arizona.  While these PWs are a bit on the low side for widespread
flash flood potential, weak flow aloft was enabling slow storm
motions and potential for a quick 0.5-1 inch of rainfall on a
localized basis.  Furthermore, localized terrain enhancement was
enabling an estimated 0.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ruidoso and
additional areas of New Mexico where burn scars have potential to
create excessive runoff conditions.  On the whole, these rain
rates were occurring on an isolated/spotty basis, suggestive of
low coverage of flash flood potential in the near term.

Models (particularly the HREF) suggest continued thunderstorm
potential through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage and
persistence over southeastern Arizona through 00-01Z this evening.
 Isolated flash flood potential is expected through that timeframe.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36620685 36310517 35330474 34370485 33480572
            32930692 31950803 31360853 31441153 33371128
            36100945