810
AWUS01 KWNH 150213
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-150810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Southwest to South-Central NE...Central and
Northern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150210Z - 150810Z

SUMMARY...Organized areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue overnight across the central Plains. Isolated instances
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong MCS activity ejecting east out across the
central Plains involving western KS and southwest NE will continue
to advance off to the east going into the overnight hours. The
airmass downstream over areas of central and northern KS and
nosing into areas of south-central NE is quite unstable, with
MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/kg.

The MCS activity in part is being strongly influenced by the
gradual arrival of shortwave energy over the High Plains
associated with an upper-level trough crossing through the central
and southern Rockies. This forcing should continue to help sustain
the ongoing convective mass and especially over north-central KS
and southwest to south-central NE over the next several hours.

Moist and convergent low-level east-southeast flow and the
aforementioned instability pooled over the region will be a key
factor in supporting rather high rainfall rates as this MCS
continues to advance off to the east. Rainfall rates up to 2
inches/hour can be expected, and some storm totals of 3 to 4
inches with isolated heavier amounts will be possible.

The 18Z HREF guidance suggests some 20 to 30 percent probabilities
of 3-hour FFG exceedance going through 06Z over southwest to
south-central NE, and since there has already been some flash
flooding concerns over southwest NE with heavier rainfall totals
over the last few hours, the expectation is that some additional
isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible heading into
the overnight hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41580017 41589827 41329694 40679630 39609654
            39119752 38989915 39170011 39870087 40560129
            41200119