Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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729 AWUS01 KWNH 131706 FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-132205- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0670 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 105 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Mid Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 131705Z - 132205Z SUMMARY...Scattered convection along a weak convergence axis will likely result in localized instances of flash flooding this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent IR imagery shows cooling cloud tops along a weak convergence axis from southeast VA into south central PA. MLCAPE ranges from 1500-2500 J/KG along this corridor, with PWs near or above 2". This environment is supportive of efficient warm rain processes and expect heavy rainfall rates from these cells. Not much large scale forcing or deep layer shear to organize convection, so activity will primarily be of pulse nature. This will likely limit the coverage of the flash flood risk...however seeing enough deep growth and coverage to indicate that some cell mergers will occur. Where these mergers occur we will likely see just enough persistence of these higher rainfall rates to drive a flash flood risk. Hourly rainfall could exceed 2" in this environment with any cold pool/merger driven persistence...and this will be enough to result in localized instances of flash flooding. Chenard ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 40177711 40037665 39057642 37897651 37737642 37367659 37207700 37227746 37527763 37997751 39287714 39767735