Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
084 AWUS01 KWNH 152140 FFGMPD NMZ000-AZZ000-160137- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1016 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 539 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Arizona through central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151937Z - 160137Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists as scattered thunderstorm activity drifts northward across the discussion area this afternoon. Discussion...Abundant insolation has enabled a gradual deepening of scattered convection across much of eastern Arizona and central New Mexico. The storms are developing in areas of 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and 0.8-1.4 inch PW values - highest across southern Arizona. While these PWs are a bit on the low side for widespread flash flood potential, weak flow aloft was enabling slow storm motions and potential for a quick 0.5-1 inch of rainfall on a localized basis. Furthermore, localized terrain enhancement was enabling an estimated 0.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ruidoso and additional areas of New Mexico where burn scars have potential to create excessive runoff conditions. On the whole, these rain rates were occurring on an isolated/spotty basis, suggestive of low coverage of flash flood potential in the near term. Models (particularly the HREF) suggest continued thunderstorm potential through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage and persistence over southeastern Arizona through 00-01Z this evening. Isolated flash flood potential is expected through that timeframe. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36620685 36310517 35330474 34370485 33480572 32930692 31950803 31360853 31441153 33371128 36100945