679
AWUS01 KWNH 211739
FFGMPD
NMZ000-212338-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211738Z - 212338Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across New Mexico. The area burn scars, and especially
involving those in the Lincoln National Forest will be
particularly susceptible to debris flow and flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected this afternoon over areas of south-central to
north-central NM where there will be potential overlap with some
notable burn scar areas. This will include the active Blue-2,
South Fork and Salt burn scar areas in the Lincoln National
Forest.

Some shower activity is ongoing locally across these areas, but
over the next several hours, a gradual increase in boundary layer
instability along with locally convergent low to mid-level flow
over the higher terrain is expected to foster an environment
conducive for increase in coverage of heavier showers and
thunderstorms. MUCAPE values currently on the order of 500 to 750
J/kg should tend to increase a bit further with additional solar
insolation.

The PW environment is very moist with magnitudes running in the
95th+ percentile of climatology. Deep tropical moisture transport
is in place across the region and is being driven by deep layer
southerly flow around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge that has nosed westward across the southern Plains.
Additionally, much of the mid and high-level moisture has a
connection to former Tropical Storm Alberto that recently crossed
into Mexico.

Poleward transport of this moisture this afternoon coupled with
the instability and upslope flow over the higher terrain will
facilitate convection that may be capable of producing rainfall
rates reaching 1 to 1.5 inches/hour. The 12Z HREF guidance shows a
40 to 70 percent chance of rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch/hour in
the 19Z to 22Z time frame over the Lincoln National Forest. Some
storm totals by late-afternoon here may reach 2 to 4 inches. This
region will be notably suceptible to runoff concerns and flash
flooding.

Additional focus of convection will also be noted farther north
into areas of the Sangre De Cristo mountains where the Hermits
Peak and Cooks Peak burn scars from 2022 are located. Farther west
in north-central NM, there is also the Cerro Pelado burn scar from
2022 and the recent Indios burn scar involving parts of the Sante
Fe National Forest. These locations may also see sufficiently
heavy enough rainfall rates/totals this afternoon for at least
localized debris flow and flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36930559 36660486 35880479 33940492 32370475
            32070495 32150586 33700659 34980685 35970681
            36650641