349
AWUS01 KWNH 191019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-191430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
619 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...northern TX/OK Panhandles into adjacent High
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191018Z - 191430Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue for the next 1-2
hours from the northern TX Panhandle into portions of northwestern
OK but decreasing rainfall rates should allow the flash flood
threat to wane through 14 to 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KAMA at 10Z continued to show a
slow moving line of thunderstorms, slowly advancing south across
the northern TX Panhandle. Peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have
averaged 1-3 in/hr over the past 2-3 hours, but the coverage of
the higher end of that range has been waning along with a
significant warming on infrared satellite imagery. Trends in VAD
wind data from KAMA showed 850 mb winds weakening from ~45 kt
earlier in the night down to ~25 kt at 10Z.

The reduced lift across the rain-cooled outflow boundary along
with weakening divergence/diffluence aloft should allow for a
continued reduction in the rainfall intensity across the TX/OK
Panhandles and adjacent locations within the High Plains over the
next few hours. However, lingering MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg was
estimated over northeastern NM into the northwestern TX Panhandle
via the 10Z SPC mesoanalysis which will likely continue to support
localized training with rainfall rates up to 3 in/hr for perhaps
another 60-90 minutes. Additional short term training will likely
maintain a flash flood threat into the remainder of the TX
Panhandle and possibly northwestern OK for the next 1-2 hours but
by 14-15Z, the flash flood threat is likely to be over due to this
system. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected for
the region, much of that falling early on, prior to an expected
dissipation of the MCS.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37209931 37119864 36619818 35609861 35309988
            35530184 35520292 35640350 36160368 36670317
            37000229 37130151 37170000