971
AWUS01 KWNH 220155
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...Mid-MO Valley into southern IA/northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220153Z - 220700Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of 1 to 3 in/hr rainfall rates may
support localized flash flooding across portions of the MO River
Valley into southern IA/northern MO through 07Z.

DISCUSSION...0145Z radar imagery showed an expanding line segment
of strong to severe convection extending from southeastern NE into
far northwestern MO and southwestern IA. Additional convection was
noted to be racing eastward across eastern KS. These storms were
located just ahead of a wavy cold front and ahead of a low to
mid-level vorticity max in northeastern KS, observed on KTWX radar
imagery, advancing toward the northeast. A small ribbon of
instability was in place ahead of the cold front with 1000 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs between 1.8 and 2.0 inches via the 01Z
SPC mesoanalysis.

Through 08Z, the cold front and instability are forecast to
continue advancing south and east while forcing ahead of the
northeastern KS vorticity max aids in lift with additional
thunderstorms likely to fill in across the MO/IA border. There
will be an overall progressive movement to individual cells and
instability should trend downward with time, but
repeating/training will also occur at times allowing for 1 to 2,
perhaps as high as 3 in/hr rainfall rates to occur. These high
rates could lead to short term rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in an
isolated location or two. While dry antecedent conditions will
likely limit the coverage of flash flooding, one cannot rule out
urban or otherwise sensitive terrain being impacted by rapid rises
of water.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41909358 41729253 41389184 40989149 40369132
            40119156 40029204 39969270 39849386 39709523
            39889618 40659533 41539467