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Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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768 AWUS01 KWNH 171015 FFGMPD WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-171430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0452 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 614 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...eastern NE/southeastern SD into IA, southern MN/western WI Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171014Z - 171430Z Summary...Occasional areas of training will continue a threat for flash flooding across portions of eastern NE/southeastern SD into IA, southern MN and far western WI this morning. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr will be possible with additional totals of 2-4 inches. Discussion...A broad MCS over portions of the Central Plains/Upper Midwest has undergone a complex evolution over the past few hours with a leading convective line extending from southeastern MN into northwestern IA and eastern NE. Movement of the leading line has been toward the east (northern portions) and southeast (southern portions). Upstream re-development continued as well, with cloud top cooling over northern NE, but appearance on radar imagery has been somewhat fragmented. The entire system was post-frontal, driven in part by a moderately strong low level jet of 35 to 60 kt (highest over KS/NE) overrunning the slow moving front. 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MUCAPE of 500 to 2000+ J/kg in place from the SD/NE border into southern MN and western WI. Aloft, flow was strongly divergent and diffluent within the right entrance region of a 130 kt centered over northern MN. An overall eastward motion is expected to continue with the convective complex over the next 3-4 hours but the greatest potential for training will be from northeastern NE into portions of IA and perhaps southern MN. It is here where mean eastward motion of cells will have the best possibility of intercepting subsequent development immediately downstream given placement of the low level jet core. RAP guidance is forecasting weakening of 850 mb winds between 13-15Z along with weakening divergence/diffluence aloft as the upper jet max translates into southern Canada. Through ~14Z, a localized flash flood threat will remain across eastern portions of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX... UNR... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 44429201 44279109 43789097 42699164 41809311 41289468 41179615 41489760 41569792 42069848 42309901 42619964 42780023 43030041 43469986 43559764 43719606 44369321