534
FXUS63 KMPX 120100
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
800 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon & evening - the
strongest could contain hail & gusty winds.

- Next chance for widespread rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

We are continuing to monitor thunderstorms that have initiated
out ahead a cold front this afternoon. So far best coverage of
storms is across portions of central MN and then again farther
to our southeast down into Iowa where a stationary boundary
exists. Additional convective initiation is anticipated to occur
south and west of the central MN activity as the frontal
boundary pushes eastward over the next several hours. The Storm
Prediction Center has mainted a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
the potential for severe thunderstorms across NE MN down into
SW MN through this evening. The current convective environment
does show suitable amounts of instability and steeper low-level
lapse rates. However deep-layer shear is sub-par but a few
funnel cloud or two cannot be ruled out. Hi-Res CAMs continue to
struggle on convection coverage through the course of this
evening. Thus tonight`s coverage for any storms should be
scattered and brief. For any storm that does manage to become
organized could produce brief periods of large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

Just behind this cold front, visibility observations across the
eastern Dakotas and western MN have come down quickly due to
wildfire smoke. The worst smoke impacts look to occur during
Saturday afternoon over central MN and southern MN and western
WI. The most concentrated smoke looks to be pinned to northern
MN and northern WI however the MN Pollution Control Agency has
issued a state wide air quality alert through Monday morning.
Aside from wildfire smoke, conditions will feel comfortable and
less humid aside from elevated smoky skies. Highs will range in
the 70s with dew points near 60. Summer conditions quickly
return Sunday though as temperatures return to the mid to 80s
with slowly increasing dew points.

Warmer and humid conditions will continue to return as the
northern CONUS enters zonal flow early next week. Temperatures
will range in the mid 80s to near 90 for a few areas by Monday
and Tuesday afternoon. Our next shot at convective development
looks to occur along a boundary in the Dakotas by Tuesday
afternoon. As the evening progresses into the overnight hours,
this feature could develop into an MCS before sunrise Wednesday.
Guidance is still working on tightening up timing but something
at least to monitor over the weekend. Much cooler temperatures
in the forecast arrive mid to late week. Especially for July
standards, forecasted highs look to range 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. So perhaps, the AC can get bit of R&R before summer
heat returns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Very little indication that additional convection will impact
the area through this TAF duration so have appreciably cut down
on the precip wording, aside from PROB30 mention at a few
locations in the first few hours. CAMs have continued to shrink
down the coverage of convection over the next few hours, so
confidence is low on having additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA
affecting any given site. What has grown in confidence to
advertise is the impact of near-surface smoke reducing
visibility from this evening through Saturday afternoon. Many
upstream obs have shown visibilities down into the MVFR range,
even IFR, so have opted to add MVFR-range HZ at all sites from
late this evening onward.

KMSP...Very little chance of additional precipitation throughout
this duration. However, starting later this evening and lasting
into tomorrow will be MVFR-range HZ/FU settling into the area.
Otherwise, little to speak of in this duration.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC