125
FXUS63 KMPX 160840
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the mid-upper 80s to continue through Wednesday.

- A more active pattern is expected for the second half of this
  week into the weekend with the best chances for rain right
  now coming Thursday/Thursday night and Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Heavy rain is currently the greatest potential hazard, though
  a severe potential is slowly starting to emerge for the two
  active periods as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Conditions definitely feel muggy when stepping outside of the
forecast office early this morning. Even with much of Minnesota and
Wisconsin seeing mostly clear skies, current temperatures remain in
the upper-60 and low-70s with dew points in the mid-60s. Off to our
west, a mid-level low is producing a few thunderstorms across the
Dakotas. This low is expected to track to the NNE throughout the
course of today which will interact with a stationary boundary
located southern Manitoba. As this interaction occurs, development
for rain showers and storms are expected across eastern North Dakota
and northwestern Minnesota. Hi-Res guidance seems to agree with
this thinking thus removed PoPs across central and southern MN
and western WI for this afternoon. With high pressure continuing
to maintain its grip over the Great Lakes region, skies should
be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s for both today and
Tuesday. CAMs are starting to pick up on some potential pre-dawn
convection especially across western MN Tuesday morning. May
need to increase PoPs should trends continue over the next few
hourly runs.

We still expect this dry pattern to shift by mid-week as h5 ridging
to our east erodes and allows low pressure building near the
Rockies. One noticeable change from the last two runs of the NBM has
been the timing and coverage for rainfall on Wednesday. Coverage has
decreased and timing has slowed more to Wednesday night into
Thursday. Depending on this lows track and the timing, some storms
may feature a small chance of severe weather given instability
and shear on the forecast soundings. Rain and storm chances
continue on Friday and into the weekend but will need to wait
until guidance has better agreement on track before discussing
direct impacts. What is known now is confidence continues to
increase that this weekend could potentially be a wet one.
Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to cool back down to at or
just below normal late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A quiet period is ahead of us with mainly high clouds at
FEW/SCT 150 to 250. Winds begin around 140-160 below 5kts,
increasing to 10-12kts at 160-180 this afternoon with a few
gusts to 20-23kts before falling back again by 00z. EAU has a
fog concern this morning but confidence was too low to include
for now and will be handled with AMDs if needed.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA likely. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...TDH