146
FXUS63 KMPX 201032
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple more days of highs in the 80s before temperatures
  fall to near normal by the second half of the weekend through
  next week.

- Chances for showers and storms continue to dwindle as a pair
  of systems this weekend will likely miss the majority of the
  area to the north and south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Thursday evening`s showers and storms have moved well off to our
east and we have been left with clear skies and falling dew points
in their wake. Today`s highs are still expected to climb into the
upper 70s and low 80s, but it will feel less summer-like than the
rest of this week as drier air continues to filter into the region.
Our next chance of precip continues to look less and less certain
for this weekend. There has been a considerable downward trend in
PoPs and QPF over the past 24-36 hours with the bulk of the rain
shifting to our southeast.  Aloft, a shortwave will skirt along the
International Border Saturday as a cutoff low ejects out of the
Southwest and into the Central Plains by Sunday. On Saturday, warm
and slightly more humid conditions will make a temporary return with
southerly flow ahead of the cold front associated with the northern
wave. This may spark some light scattered showers across the
forecast area Saturday, but QPF amounts look to be only a few
hundredths of an inch at best. Far southeastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin will have the best chance at seeing some of this
activity as this area will have the most time to destabilize
and get some of the more impressive dew points (60-65F)in place
before the front approaches. SPC has highlighted this area for a
Marginal Risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon, but forecast
soundings suggest capping may remain in place through the
evening.

Sunday will be considerably cooler behind this system with
temperatures near late September normals in the upper 60s. The
aforementioned system across the Central Plains may brush far
southern Minnesota with the northern extent of the precip shield,
but it`s looking like another miss. While there was no change in
this week`s drought monitor for the MPX CWA, it`s worth noting that
all three of our climate sites are sitting well under month to date
precip normals. MSP has only seen 0.03" for the month and without
another significant rainmaker on the horizon, this September is
on track to be the driest on record. However, thanks to a
surplus of rain earlier in the year, we are still running above
the year-to-date average. We`ll start the first official day of
Autumn on a chilly note with overnight lows Monday morning
falling into the low 40s north and west to upper 40s south.
Highs will again be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with low 70s
and dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

With drier air continuing to march eastward, any fog at our
Wisconsin sites has been short-lived this morning. Satellite
imagery shows it eroding quickly, but opted to leave it in just
a tad longer at KEAU as low end IFR has been prominent over the
last couple of hours. Otherwise, moved up the timing of the wind
shift to the west an hour or two for our western and central
Minnesota terminals and reduced speeds by a couple knots. By
this evening, winds are still expected to take on a more
southeasterly direction, but will be around 5kts or less. A
strong LLJ may pose some LLWS concerns for KRWF and KMKT late in
the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts becoming W.
SUN...VFR. Slight chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye